Are you sure? It seems like the Weimar constitution (article 145) introduced mandatory school attendance in 1919?
dhoe
Karma: 172
Thanks for that “How Watson reads a clue” paper, that made it much clearer for me.
I’ve spent a bit of time trying to understand what Watson does, and couldn’t find a clear answer. I’d really appreciate a concise technical explanation.
What I got so far is that it runs a ton of different algorithms and combines the results in some sort of probabilistic reasoning to make a bet on the most likely correct answer. Is that roughly correct? And what are those algorithms then?
I read one of his books a long time ago, and the fact that he was basically saying that playing chess was fundamentally too difficult for a computer went a long way in convincing me that we overestimate the magic that happens inside human brains.
If anywhere in the EU is good, consider giving higher priority to places with low unemployment. It simplifies life tremendously if you can count on finding at least some braindead job by next Wednesday.
I have found myself in what sounds like a similar situation in the past and this strategy worked really well. Others I’ve tried that did not work out equally well were: hitchhike to France and just see what happens (all my stuff got stolen), make lots of money by writing a successful novel (having nothing to eat turns out to be very distracting).
In other words, I recommend a relatively low risk /medium reward strategy until you’re in a better place.
I wrote a task manager (to-do manager) for myself on January 1, and have been growing it since then. The user interface is inspired by Taskwarrior, but I use an sqllite backend, and therefore it’s 300 lines of Python instead of 30k of C++. The small size allows me to be flexible in testing various ideas I have around task management—a new feature is usually just one or two SQL queries away.
My most promising exploration has been to not accept any tasks to be older than 2 weeks. If I haven’t managed to do it by then, there’s something wrong—it’s ill formulated, or there’s some unsatisfied dependency that I’m not clear about, or I don’t really intend to do it. I’ve developed a check list to go through to collect some stats about why tasks get to that point, with the intent to recognize them earlier.
One of my major failure modes seems to be to totally overestimate my capacity to deal with people the longer I think into the future—I’m totally sure I’ll be able to confront my landlord in a week, but not today. Much worse than the usual discounting happening all the time.
Are you attributing dual process theory to CFAR? In any case, situational awareness is not rationality, nor is it indispensable for it. I don’t argue that it’s nice to have, as are many other things, although I’d worry about trade-offs.
I disagree with the importance you seem to place on it. Situational awareness implies realtime processing of high bandwidth environmental data, and that’s orthogonal to rationality (cf. your stereotypical situationally unaware professor, lost in thought, and processing some data far away from the situation).
The conclusion of the authors of the Norwegian study sounds quite a bit weaker: “cholesterol emerged as an overestimated risk factor in our study, indicating that guideline information might be misleading, particularly for women with ‘moderately elevated’ cholesterol (...)”.
I think it does. Bayes gets mentioned a lot around here, but there are not that many clear and accessible examples on how to go and analyze a real question; I recently read Proving History, despite no particular interest in the topic (Jesus’ historicity), just to get a better idea of how people do it in practice.
H: Person x has no desire for status
E: Person x writes a post about how she’s unlike most other people.
You already assigned P(H) as 0.1 (or quite possibly lower). Now you only need to estimate P(E|H) and P(E|~H), plug it all into Bayes rule, and you’ll see why people are not really buying it. It doesn’t mean you’re wrong—it’s just unlikely that you’re right.
Having lived for 14 years in Italy, my impression is that several commenters severely overestimate the rationality and fairness of the italian police force.
“Mandatory school attendance” in Germany means exactly that though. The legals concepts are Bildungspflicht or Unterrichtspflicht in Austria (mandatory education) which can be satisfied by homeschooling, while Schulpflicht (mandatory school attendance) prescribes visiting an actual school.
Where did you get that “Hitler did it” from?