How are things progressing?
Conor
Karma: 40
I suppose the next step after passing the desire test, would be to actually verify that the goal will, in reality, provide that thing I imagine makes me go mmmm by researching and testing.
I imagine walking around dressed like a doctor and telling people I’m a doctor. Adding M.D. to my online dating profile, job shadowing, going to neighborhoods where doctors live, luring some doctors into my van, learning to sew, digging a pit in my cellar, and buying some night vision goggles and buying a bunch of lotion...
Luckily, I don’t want to be a doctor.
If you are fearful of offending people go to an online or in person marketplace and start low-balling people...
That… is a great idea and I can see how to expand on it into other arenas.
Since I posted this question I’ve been working primarily on strategy and through that have realized improving my productivity would be a wise decision. Since they seem so intertwined (productivity is the strategic use of time and resources) I’ve split my time up into 40% strategy, 40% productivity, 20% execution of other goal-oriented tasks.
I’ve drafted some ways to measure progress:Productivity
Largely derived from: Thank you notes from my future self.
If I could go back and redo the work, how long would it take me to make the same amount of progress? Divide the time-to-redo by the original duration.
Ex. I spent 4 hours writing a draft. Looking back I could have saved 1 hour by researching more thoroughly before starting to write. Score: 75% efficient.
Tracking Method
Record what I did during the day in the evening.
Score it with the above method and add a hidden confidence score.
Score it again 3 days later.
Track the difference for calibration.
Ask why that score was selected.Also Track:
Time spent working.
Consistency of adhering to my work schedule: 5 days a week.Strategy
Tracking Method
Rate of changes to strategy guide. (little iffy on this one).
I win more than I lose. (Games, negotiating, etc.)
Goals accomplished.
Thanks again for the advice.
For whomever reads this that is as innumerate as I am and is confused about the example simulation with the excel formula “=norminv(rand(), 15, (20–10)/3.29)”, I hope my explanation below helps (and is correct!).
The standard error/deviation* of 3.29 is such because that’s the correct value for the confidence interval of 90%. That number is determined by the confidence interval used. It is not the standard deviation of $10-$20. Don’t ask me why, I don’t know, yet.
Additionally, you can’t just paste that formula into excel. Remove the range (20-10) and keep the standard error.
At least that’s the best understanding I have of it thus far. I could be wrong!
*Standard deviation is for entire populations and standard error is for samples of populations.Edit: fixed link to Monte Carlo spreadsheet & all the other downloads for the book
So far, I think of Strategy as a method for determining tactics to achieve a goal, and may include developing a step-by-step plan. I see a variety of techniques fitting this framework:
focusing: to see if I’m conflicted about my goal.
theory of change: to formulate a plan tracing potential actions backward from my goal to my current state
murphyjitsu: to identify and prepare for threats to success for the strategy and the tactics.
goal factoring: to assess behaviors that compose the strategy and tactics and combine them to better achieve the end.
research as a stochastic decision process: to help allocate effort efficiently.
I’ll check out hammertime. Thanks for the suggestion.
[Question] How do I improve at being strategic?
How has your strategy (a-h) changed since you wrote this? Are there resources you can share for learning to be more strategic? A method for finding quality resources? Methods for practicing and assessing strategic skill?
How would vaccine refusers impact this model?
Could you expand on what makes the typography noteworthy? I’m completely unaware of this topic, but curious.
Jacob Fisker has a method called the reverse fishbone diagram.
You draw a horizontal line and that is the action.
Above the line you draw a diagonal forward slanted line for each positive first order effect of taking that action and below you do the same for negative effects.
On those initial branches, you branch off second order effects, up or down pointed depending on their valence until you have a sketch roughly resembling a fish skeleton with as many orders of effects as you can come up with.
You then count the upward and downward lines and compare how the effects serve other goals you have to determine if this is a good action to continue. Of course, how you weight each effect matters, so you can try to take that into account maybe by bolding important effects.
I prefer this method because it is closer to comprehensive by including more consequences in a slightly more elegant manner than the mind map approach.
I’m assuming there is a goal evaluation lesson coming up, so I won’t comment on confusing means/actions with ends/goals.
System 1 doesn’t make sense?
Applied rationality: Methods for fostering quick, efficient, and well-informed decision-making toward a goal.
Winter is nearly here and you need a door for your house to keep out the cold. In your workspace there is a large block of an unknown type of wood. Using only what you can assertain about it from your senses and experiences, you determine which tool to use for each circumstance you uncover as you reduce the block into the best door you can make given the time, tools, and knowledge available.
Edit: thanks for the post. It was very helpful.
Did you end up trying the microneedling? I’m curious about that route.