I work on applied mathematics and AI at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL). I am also currently pursuing a PhD in Information Systems at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC). My PhD research focuses on decision and risk analysis under extreme uncertainty, with a particular focus on potential existential risks from very advanced AI.
Aryeh Englander
Karma: 1,511
[Link] New SEP article on Bayesian Epistemology
[Question] Why has no person / group ever taken over the world?
We have a points system in our family to incentivize the kids to do their chores. But we have to regularly update the rules because it turns out that there are ways to optimize for the points that we didn’t anticipate and that don’t really reflect what we actually want the kids to be incentivized to do. Every time this happens I think—ha, alignment failure!
Alexey Turchin and David Denkenberger describe several scenarios here: https://philpapers.org/rec/TURCOG-2 (additional recent discussion in this comment thread)
Eliezer’s go-to scenario (from his recent post):
The concrete example I usually use here is nanotech, because there’s been pretty detailed analysis of what definitely look like physically attainable lower bounds on what should be possible with nanotech, and those lower bounds are sufficient to carry the point. My lower-bound model of “how a sufficiently powerful intelligence would kill everyone, if it didn’t want to not do that” is that it gets access to the Internet, emails some DNA sequences to any of the many many online firms that will take a DNA sequence in the email and ship you back proteins, and bribes/persuades some human who has no idea they’re dealing with an AGI to mix proteins in a beaker, which then form a first-stage nanofactory which can build the actual nanomachinery. (Back when I was first deploying this visualization, the wise-sounding critics said “Ah, but how do you know even a superintelligence could solve the protein folding problem, if it didn’t already have planet-sized supercomputers?” but one hears less of this after the advent of AlphaFold 2, for some odd reason.) The nanomachinery builds diamondoid bacteria, that replicate with solar power and atmospheric CHON, maybe aggregate into some miniature rockets or jets so they can ride the jetstream to spread across the Earth’s atmosphere, get into human bloodstreams and hide, strike on a timer. Losing a conflict with a high-powered cognitive system looks at least as deadly as “everybody on the face of the Earth suddenly falls over dead within the same second”.
https://www.gwern.net/fiction/Clippy (very detailed but also very long and very full of technical jargon; on the other hand, I think it’s mostly understandable even if you have to gloss over most of the jargon)
Please describe or provide links to descriptions of concrete AGI takeover scenarios that are at least semi-plausible, and especially takeover scenarios that result in human extermination and/or eternal suffering (s-risk). Yes, I know that the arguments don’t necessarily require that we can describe particular takeover scenarios, but I still find it extremely useful to have concrete scenarios available, both for thinking purposes and for explaining things to others.
One of the most common proposals I see people raise (once they understand the core issues) is some form of, “can’t we just use some form of slightly-weaker safe AI to augment human capabilities and allow us to bootstrap to / monitor / understand the more advanced versions?” And in fact lots of AI safety agendas do propose something along these lines. How would you best explain to a newcomer why Eliezer and others think this will not work? How would you explain the key cruxes that make Eliezer et al think nothing along these lines will work, while others think it’s more promising?
[Note that two-axis voting is now enabled for this post. Thanks to the mods for allowing that!]
This website looks pretty cool! I didn’t know about this before.
I haven’t even read the post yet, but I’m giving a strong upvote in favor of promoting the norm of posting unpopular critical opinions.
I forgot about downvotes. I’m going to add this in to the guidelines.
Obligatory link to the excellent AGI Safety Fundamentals curriculum.
Background material recommendations (more in depth): Please recommend your favorite AGI safety background reading / videos / lectures / etc. For this sub-thread more in-depth recommendations are allowed, including material that requires technical expertise of some sort. (Please specify what kind of background knowledge / expertise is required to understand the material you’re recommending.) This is also the place to recommend general resources people can look at if they want to start doing a deeper dive into AGI safety and related topics.
Background material recommendations (popular-level audience, several hours time commitment): Please recommend your favorite basic AGI safety background reading / videos / lectures / etc. For this sub-thread please only recommend background material suitable for a popular level audience. Time commitment is allowed to be up to several hours, so for example a popular-level book or sequence of posts would work. Extra bonus for explaining why you particularly like your suggestion over other potential suggestions, and/or for elaborating on which audiences might benefit most from different suggestions.
Background material recommendations (popular-level audience, very short time commitment): Please recommend your favorite basic AGI safety background reading / videos / lectures / etc. For this sub-thread please only recommend background material suitable for complete newcomers to the field, with a time commitment of at most 1-2 hours. Extra bonus for explaining why you particularly like your suggestion over other potential suggestions, and/or for elaborating on which audiences might benefit most from different suggestions.
I’m pretty sure that’s the whole purpose of having province governors and sub-kingdoms, and various systems in place to ensure loyalty. Every empire in history did this, to my knowledge. The threat of an imperial army showing up on your doorstep if you fail to comply has historically been sufficient to ensure loyalty, at least while the empire is strong.