D&D.Sci, for Data Science and related skills (including, to an extent, inference-in-general).
abstractapplic
Karma: 2,766
“What important truth do you believe, which most people don’t?”
“I don’t think I possess any rare important truths.”
On reflection, I think
my initial guess happened to be close to optimal
because
Adventurers will successfully deduce that a mid-dungeon Trap is less dangerous than a mid-dungeon Orc
and
Hag-then-Dragon seems to make best use of the weird endgame interaction I still don’t understand
however
I’m scared Adventurers might choose Orcs-plus-optionality over Boulders
so my new plan is
CBW/OOH/XXD
(and I also suspect
COW/OBH/XXD
might be better because of
the tendency of Adventuring parties to pick Eastern routes over Southern ones when all else is equal
but I don’t have the confidence to make that my answer.)
Oh and just for Posterity’s sake, marking that I noticed both
the way some Tournaments will have 3 judges and others will have 4
and
the change in distribution somewhere between Tournaments 3000 and 4000
but I have no clue how to make use of these phenomena.
On further inspection it turns out I’m completely wrong about
how traps work.
and it looks like
Dungeoneers can always tell what kinds of fight they’ll be getting into: min(feature effect) between 2 and 4 is what decides how they collectively impact Score.
It also looks like
The rankings of effectiveness are different between the Entry Square, the Exit Square, and Everywhere Else; Steel Golems are far and away the best choice for guarding the entrance but ‘only’ on par with Dragons elsewhere.
Lastly
It looks like there’s a weak but solid benefit to dungeoneers having no choice even between similarly strong creatures: a choice of two dragons and a choice of two hags are both a bit scarier than hag-or-dragon. (Though that might just be because multiple of the same strong creature is evidence you’re in a well-stocked dungeon? Feature effects are hard to detangle.)
Also
It seems like there’s a weirdly strong interaction between the penultimate obstacle and the ultimate obstacle?
I still have a bunch of checking to confirm whether this actually works, but I’m getting my preliminary decision down ASAP:
CWB/OOH/XXD (where the Xes are Nothing or Goblins depending on whether I’m Hard-mode-ing)
On the basis that:
Adventurers should prioritize the ‘empty’ trapped rooms over the ones with Orcs, then end up funelled into the traps and towards the Hag; Clay Golem and Dragon are our aces, so they’re placed in the two locations Adventurers can’t complete the course without touching.
But you know you can just go onto Ligben and type in the name yourself, right?
I didn’t, actually; I’ve never used libgen before and assumed there’d be more to it. Thanks for taking the time to show me otherwise.
as documented in Curses! Broiled Again!, a collection of urban legends available on Libgen
Link?
You’re right. I’ll delete that aside.
I can’t believe I forgot that one; edited; ty!
Algebraic Linguistics
Congrats on applying Bayes; unfortunately, you applied it to the wrong numbers.
The key point is that “Question 3: Bayes” is describing a new village, with demographics slightly different to the village in the first half of your post. You grandfathered in the 0.2 from there, when the equivalent number in Village Two is 0.16 (P(Cat) = P(Witch with Cat) + P(Muggle with Cat) = 0.1*0.7 + 0.9*0.1 = 0.07 + 0.09 = 0.16), for a final answer of 43.75%.
(The meta-lesson here is not to trust LLMs to give you info you can’t personally verify, and especially not to trust them to check anything.)
ETA: Also, good on you for posting this. I think LW needs more numbery posts, more 101-level posts, and more falsifiable posts; a numbery 101-level falsifiable post gets a gold star (even if it ends up falsified).
Edited it to be less pointlessly poetic; hopefully the new version is less ambiguous. Ty!
[Question] Which Biases are most important to Overcome?
Has some government or random billionaire sought out Petrov’s heirs and made sure none of them have to work again if they don’t want to? It seems like an obviously sensible thing to do from a game-theoretic point of view.
everyone who ever votes (>12M)
I . . . don’t think that’s a correct reading of the stats presented? Unless I’m missing something, “votes” counts each individual [up|down]vote each individual user makes, so there are many more total votes than total people.
‘Everyone’ paying a one-time $10 subscription fee would solve the problem.
A better (though still imperfect) measure of ‘everyone’ is the number of active users. The graph says that was ~4000 this month. $40,000 would not solve the problem.
CS from MIT OCW
Good choice of topic.
(5:00-6:00 AM)
(6:00-7:00 AM)
Everyone has their own needs and tolerances, so I won’t presume to know yours . . . and if you’re trying to build daily habits, “every morning” is probably easier to reliably schedule than “every night” . . . but still, sleep is a big deal, especially for intellectual work. If you’re not unsually good at going without for long stretches, and/or planning to turn in before 10pm to compensate . . . you might benefit from a slightly less Spartan schedule.
Put together a plan to learn to write and execute it.
What kind(s) of writing do you want to be able to produce?
Practice
I’m curious how you plan on practicing your rationality, and how you intend to measure improvement. As far as I can tell our subculture has been trying to figure this out for a decade and change, with sharply limited success.
compute
I don’t remember the equations for integration by parts and haven’t used them in years. However, when I saw this, I immediately started scribbling on the whiteboard by my bed, thinking:
“Okay, so start with (x^2)log(x). Differentiating that gives two times the target, but also gives us a spare x we’d need to get rid of. So the answer is (0.5)(x^2)log(x) - (x^2)/4.”
So I actually think you’re right in general but wrong on this specific example: getting a deep sense for what you’re doing when you’re doing integration-by-parts would be a more robust help than rote memorization.
(Though rote memorization and regular practice absolutely have their place; if I’d done more of those I’d have remembered to stick a “+c” on the end.)
Something like D&D.Sci, then?
You might want to look into tests given to job applicants. (Human intelligence evaluation is an entire industry already!)