The tech tree picture is in large part a reaction to single-factor “capabilities/alignment ratio” pictures (as in FAI Research Constraints), or even two-factor pictures (as in State Space), because while they summarize the results of decision-making about research priorities, they didn’t help me summarize my reasoning process.
Complementary ideas to this article:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BfKQGYJBwdHfik4Kd/fai-research-constraints-and-agi-side-effects: (the origin for the fuel tank metaphor Raemon refers to in these comments)
Extending things further to handle higher order derivatives and putting things within a cohesive space: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TCxik4KvTgGzMowP9/state-space-of-x-risk-trajectories
A typology for mapping downside risks: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RY9XYoqPeMc8W8zbH/mapping-downside-risks-and-information-hazards
A set of potential responses for what to do with potentially dangerous developments and a heuristic for triggering that evaluation: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ur8vDX6ApAXrRN3t/information-hazards-why-you-should-care-and-what-you-can-do
A general heuristic for what technology to develop and how to distribute it: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4oGYbvcy2SRHTWgWk/improving-the-future-by-influencing-actors-benevolence
A coherence focused framework from which is more fundamental than the link just above and from which it can be derived: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AtwPwD6PBsqfpCsHE/aligning-ai-by-optimizing-for-wisdom
The tech tree picture is in large part a reaction to single-factor “capabilities/alignment ratio” pictures (as in FAI Research Constraints), or even two-factor pictures (as in State Space), because while they summarize the results of decision-making about research priorities, they didn’t help me summarize my reasoning process.
Gotcha. What determines the “ratios” is some sort of underlying causal structure of which some aspects can be summarized by a tech tree. For thinking about the causal structure you may also like this post: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TfRexamDYBqSwg7er/causal-diagrams-of-the-paths-to-existential-catastrophe
Thanks a bunch!