“I don’t think anyone has a good argument for it being lower then 5%, or even 50%,”
That’s false. There are many, many good arguments. In fact, I would say that it is not only that, it is also that many of the arguments pro-doom are very bad. The only problem is that the conversation in LW on this topic is badly biased towards one camp and that’s creating a distorted image on this website. People arguing against doom tend to be downvoted way more easily than people pro-doom. I am not saying that I don’t think it is a relevant problem , something people shouldn’t work on, etc.
“I don’t think anyone has a good argument for it being lower then 5%, or even 50%,”
That’s false. There are many, many good arguments. In fact, I would say that it is not only that, it is also that many of the arguments pro-doom are very bad. The only problem is that the conversation in LW on this topic is badly biased towards one camp and that’s creating a distorted image on this website. People arguing against doom tend to be downvoted way more easily than people pro-doom. I am not saying that I don’t think it is a relevant problem , something people shouldn’t work on, etc.