I have a question as a donor, that I regret not thinking of during the fundraising push. Could you identify a few possible future outcomes, that success or failure on could be measured within a year, that if achieved would indicate that REACH was probably producing significant value from an EA perspective (as opposed to from a community-having-nice-things perspective)? And could you offer probability estimates on those outcomes being achieved?
I certainly understand if this would be overly time-consuming, but I’d feel comfortable donating more if I had a good answer to this in hand.
Edit: Kelsey on Discord proposed a few possible outcomes that might (or might not, depending on how you envision REACH working) be answers to this question:
The regular meetups REACH hosts get ~50 people to attend at least four EA meetups a year when they wouldn’t have attended any.
As a result of the things they learned at those meetups, at least ten people change where they’re donating to or what they’re prioritizing in the next year.
At least five people join the community via REACH events/staying there/interacting with people staying there, and at least one of them is doing useful work in an EA priority area.
I am not very good at making up numbers in this way and have stopped trying. I am not a superforecaster :) So I’m not going to make any actual predictions, but I’ll give some categories where I see potential for impact.
First, let me give an overview of what has been achieved so far based on the metrics I have access to:
number of visits (909 logged visits between 4⁄26 and 8⁄30, with about 300 unique visitors—this is a lossy collection strategy, not everyone who comes in actually signs in, I’d guess at most 80% of visits get logged, but again, I’m bad at estimates. Thanks to Alison Eliot for transcribing the written sign in sheet!)
number of events (~3-6 per week since April, the events have all been on the google calendar at https://www.berkeleyreach.org/calendar, so I could figure out the exact numbers if it was important but I don’t feel urgency around it right now. Looks like about 90 that have been posted on FB.)
Here’s a sample of testimonials from the REACH survey in July, in response to the question “If applicable, describe a time that REACH really made a difference for you.”
Every time I go to REACH I meet new people and find ways to help out. I love REACH and I’m excited to help make it a successful community center.
It really made the idea of hosting (co hosting to be accurate) a meetup feel less intimidating.
Default place to meet up, has made it way easier to make friends and get connected to the community, perfect space to run AR games, lots of randomly running into people and becoming friends
I learned what actually Focusing is, there.
The EAG pre party was great and I’m glad I can direct people to REACH for meetups
Moving to the Bay it is good to know there is a “default couch” available if I need crash space on a particular day
Kind of every time I visit. I am meeting so many more of our community, I am actively contributing. I can feel a difference in me after every single visit.
1) I have made at least one friend that I don’t think I would have met otherwise. 2) Before arriving in Berkeley I worried about finding cool people to socialize with of of work. REACH solved this problem for me, I just have to go there.
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Some possible things I could see trying to measure in the future:
Number of people hearing about and getting a job based on an interaction at REACH (I don’t know if this has happened yet or not)
Plan changes in the 80k sense (people deciding to move toward more effective jobs, do earning to give, etc)
Number of EA projects that began as a result of conversations at/facilitated by REACH
Cross-pollination of related projects (e.g. someone at one X-risk org meeting someone at another X-risk org that they wouldn’t have otherwise met/spent time with exchanging useful information that helps with coordination across projects—I believe this one has happened a few times already)
Other forms of collaboration (e.g. when Malcolm was visiting, I let him know about a Complice room feature request that would be helpful for REACH, and he worked on it with me in the room giving input on design decisions—we could’ve had this collaboration over fb messenger, or could’ve met up somewhere else, but having a default place to do it made it much more likely to actually happen, and lead to quick feedback loops)
Number of fulfilling romantic relationships fostered (this is of arguable value, and measuring the fulfilling part seems hard)
REACH Panel dispute resolutions? (this could end up being net negative if it ends up just stirring up drama, but I think there are some important conflicts in the community that need to be addressed and currently are not)
Mental health outcomes? (I’m not confident that REACH can do anything concrete for mental health in the community, but people have self-reported that the structured coworking days have been good for their productivity/motivation which had been flagging due to depression/anxiety)
The regular meetups REACH hosts get ~50 people to attend at least four EA meetups a year when they wouldn’t have attended any.
This seems plausibly already the case? There were no EA meetups in Berkeley before I started REACH. Most of the EA meetups draw 8-25 people and it’s not always the same people (there’s a core set of 4 or so who are usually there).
As a result of the things they learned at those meetups, at least ten people change where they’re donating to or what they’re prioritizing in the next year.
This I’m not sure about, happy to hear any anecdotes if this is the case for anyone!
At least five people join the community via REACH events/staying there/interacting with people staying there, and at least one of them is doing useful work in an EA priority area.
I would say at least 5 people have become significantly more involved in the community than they would’ve in the counterfactual. Some of them are at least applying for jobs in EA priority areas.
Thanks for this update!
I have a question as a donor, that I regret not thinking of during the fundraising push. Could you identify a few possible future outcomes, that success or failure on could be measured within a year, that if achieved would indicate that REACH was probably producing significant value from an EA perspective (as opposed to from a community-having-nice-things perspective)? And could you offer probability estimates on those outcomes being achieved?
I certainly understand if this would be overly time-consuming, but I’d feel comfortable donating more if I had a good answer to this in hand.
Edit: Kelsey on Discord proposed a few possible outcomes that might (or might not, depending on how you envision REACH working) be answers to this question:
The regular meetups REACH hosts get ~50 people to attend at least four EA meetups a year when they wouldn’t have attended any.
As a result of the things they learned at those meetups, at least ten people change where they’re donating to or what they’re prioritizing in the next year.
At least five people join the community via REACH events/staying there/interacting with people staying there, and at least one of them is doing useful work in an EA priority area.
I am not very good at making up numbers in this way and have stopped trying. I am not a superforecaster :) So I’m not going to make any actual predictions, but I’ll give some categories where I see potential for impact.
First, let me give an overview of what has been achieved so far based on the metrics I have access to:
number of visits (909 logged visits between 4⁄26 and 8⁄30, with about 300 unique visitors—this is a lossy collection strategy, not everyone who comes in actually signs in, I’d guess at most 80% of visits get logged, but again, I’m bad at estimates. Thanks to Alison Eliot for transcribing the written sign in sheet!)
number of events (~3-6 per week since April, the events have all been on the google calendar at https://www.berkeleyreach.org/calendar, so I could figure out the exact numbers if it was important but I don’t feel urgency around it right now. Looks like about 90 that have been posted on FB.)
Here’s a sample of testimonials from the REACH survey in July, in response to the question “If applicable, describe a time that REACH really made a difference for you.”
----------
Some possible things I could see trying to measure in the future:
Number of people hearing about and getting a job based on an interaction at REACH (I don’t know if this has happened yet or not)
Plan changes in the 80k sense (people deciding to move toward more effective jobs, do earning to give, etc)
Number of EA projects that began as a result of conversations at/facilitated by REACH
Cross-pollination of related projects (e.g. someone at one X-risk org meeting someone at another X-risk org that they wouldn’t have otherwise met/spent time with exchanging useful information that helps with coordination across projects—I believe this one has happened a few times already)
Other forms of collaboration (e.g. when Malcolm was visiting, I let him know about a Complice room feature request that would be helpful for REACH, and he worked on it with me in the room giving input on design decisions—we could’ve had this collaboration over fb messenger, or could’ve met up somewhere else, but having a default place to do it made it much more likely to actually happen, and lead to quick feedback loops)
Number of fulfilling romantic relationships fostered (this is of arguable value, and measuring the fulfilling part seems hard)
REACH Panel dispute resolutions? (this could end up being net negative if it ends up just stirring up drama, but I think there are some important conflicts in the community that need to be addressed and currently are not)
Mental health outcomes? (I’m not confident that REACH can do anything concrete for mental health in the community, but people have self-reported that the structured coworking days have been good for their productivity/motivation which had been flagging due to depression/anxiety)
FWIW, at least one person has gotten at least one short-term-contract from REACH.
Just now saw the edit.
This seems plausibly already the case? There were no EA meetups in Berkeley before I started REACH.
Most of the EA meetups draw 8-25 people and it’s not always the same people (there’s a core set of 4 or so who are usually there).
This I’m not sure about, happy to hear any anecdotes if this is the case for anyone!
I would say at least 5 people have become significantly more involved in the community than they would’ve in the counterfactual. Some of them are at least applying for jobs in EA priority areas.