I agree, I think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus. Personally I would say 60% chance zoonotic, 40% chance lab leak.
Given that they had engineered viruses in the lab at biosafety level II, why do you think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus?
My take is: I really haven’t been following the lab leak stuff. The point of my comment was to bring this hypothesis to the attention of people who have, and hopefully get some takes from them. As I understand it:
We know for sure that miners went into a cave, the same cave where btw one of the closest known wild relatives of COVID was later sampled
We know for sure that the miners got sick with COVID-like symptoms, some for 4+ months
We know for sure that samples (including posthumous samples) from those sick miners were sent to WIV, and that the researchers still had access to those samples into 2020
I think that’s more than enough to at least raise the Mojiang Miner Passage theory to consideration. Figuring out whether the theory is actually true or not would require a lot more beyond that, e.g. arguments about the exact genetic code of the furin cleavage site and all this other stuff which is way outside my area of expertise. :)
I agree, I think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus. Personally I would say 60% chance zoonotic, 40% chance lab leak.
Given that they had engineered viruses in the lab at biosafety level II, why do you think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus?
I’m interested in Metacelsus’s answer.
My take is: I really haven’t been following the lab leak stuff. The point of my comment was to bring this hypothesis to the attention of people who have, and hopefully get some takes from them. As I understand it:
We know for sure that miners went into a cave, the same cave where btw one of the closest known wild relatives of COVID was later sampled
We know for sure that the miners got sick with COVID-like symptoms, some for 4+ months
We know for sure that samples (including posthumous samples) from those sick miners were sent to WIV, and that the researchers still had access to those samples into 2020
I think that’s more than enough to at least raise the Mojiang Miner Passage theory to consideration. Figuring out whether the theory is actually true or not would require a lot more beyond that, e.g. arguments about the exact genetic code of the furin cleavage site and all this other stuff which is way outside my area of expertise. :)