I would almost nominate this post for this quote alone:
The right thing to do is closer to this: figure out how convincing you expect evidence to look given the extent of selection bias. Then, update on the difference between what you see and what’s expected. If a clever arguer makes a case which is much better than what you would have expected they could make, you can update up. If it is worse that you’d expect, even if the evidence would otherwise look favorable, you update down.
I’ve used this heuristic several times over the last year, and it was better than whatever I would have done otherwise.
Zooming out, I personally found points 1, 4, 5, and 6 to be insightful one year on.
I would almost nominate this post for this quote alone:
I’ve used this heuristic several times over the last year, and it was better than whatever I would have done otherwise.
Zooming out, I personally found points 1, 4, 5, and 6 to be insightful one year on.