I do agree that it increases the variance of outcomes. I think it decreases the mean, but I’m less sure about that. Here’s one way I think it could work, if it does work: If some people are generally pessimistic about their chances of success, and this causes them to update their beliefs closer to reality, then Altman’s advice would help. That is, if some people give up too easily, it will help them, while the outside world (investors, the market, etc) will put a check on those who are overly optimistic. However, I think it’s still important to note that “not giving up” can lead not just to lack of success, but also to value destruction (Pets.com; Theranos; WeWork).
Thanks for the “Young Rationalists” link, I hadn’t read that before. I think there are a fair number of successful rationalists, but they mostly focus on doing their work rather than engaging with the rationalist community. One example of this is Cliff Asness—here’s a essay by him that takes a strongly rationalist view.
I think it’s still important to note that “not giving up” can lead not just to lack of success, but also to value destruction (Pets.com; Theranos; WeWork).
If you’re going to interpret the original “don’t give up” advice so literally and blindly that “no matter what the challenges are I’m going to figure them out” includes committing massive fraud, then yes, it will be bad advice for you. That’s a really remarkably uncharitable interpretation.
I do agree that it increases the variance of outcomes. I think it decreases the mean, but I’m less sure about that. Here’s one way I think it could work, if it does work: If some people are generally pessimistic about their chances of success, and this causes them to update their beliefs closer to reality, then Altman’s advice would help. That is, if some people give up too easily, it will help them, while the outside world (investors, the market, etc) will put a check on those who are overly optimistic. However, I think it’s still important to note that “not giving up” can lead not just to lack of success, but also to value destruction (Pets.com; Theranos; WeWork).
Thanks for the “Young Rationalists” link, I hadn’t read that before. I think there are a fair number of successful rationalists, but they mostly focus on doing their work rather than engaging with the rationalist community. One example of this is Cliff Asness—here’s a essay by him that takes a strongly rationalist view.
If you’re going to interpret the original “don’t give up” advice so literally and blindly that “no matter what the challenges are I’m going to figure them out” includes committing massive fraud, then yes, it will be bad advice for you. That’s a really remarkably uncharitable interpretation.
Not sure if this is your typo or a LW bug, but “essay” appears not to actually be hyperlinked?
I think I mis-pasted the link. I have edited it, but it’s suppose to go to https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/A-Gut-Punch