You are forgetting declining immunity. Next winter may very well have a similar wave again. In fact this is imho the central scenario (60%ish probability). Quite possibly with multiple strains.
I agree with most of your post, but this looks like wishful thinking to me.
Also, individual prevention should be way easier than you make it out to be. Wear a well fitting N95 or better mask when meeting people and you are mostly done if you live alone or with compliant housemates. Just look at Covid stations in hospitals. Staff there is wearing mostly N95, often poorly fitting and even they do not get infected on the first day (or week) despite MUCH more exposure than we will ever get. Masks work! Masks not working in the general population is a compliance problem, not a technical problem.
There will definitely be another wave next winter- I don’t think anyone disputes that. I think it’s very likely to be somewhat lower in terms of case count- how much depends a lot on what new variants arise. I think it’s almost certainly going to quite a bit less bad in terms of hospitilisations/deaths (and this winter will be a lot less bad than last).
Masks definitely work. But I don’t consider having to wear a mask whenever I’m in the company of another person to be remotely a price worth paying for a significantly reduced chance of getting a bit of a sniffle, which all covid really amounts to for a young tri-vaccinated person these days. So I don’t wear masks, even when legally required to.
You are forgetting declining immunity. Next winter may very well have a similar wave again. In fact this is imho the central scenario (60%ish probability). Quite possibly with multiple strains.
I agree with most of your post, but this looks like wishful thinking to me.
Also, individual prevention should be way easier than you make it out to be. Wear a well fitting N95 or better mask when meeting people and you are mostly done if you live alone or with compliant housemates. Just look at Covid stations in hospitals. Staff there is wearing mostly N95, often poorly fitting and even they do not get infected on the first day (or week) despite MUCH more exposure than we will ever get. Masks work! Masks not working in the general population is a compliance problem, not a technical problem.
There will definitely be another wave next winter- I don’t think anyone disputes that. I think it’s very likely to be somewhat lower in terms of case count- how much depends a lot on what new variants arise. I think it’s almost certainly going to quite a bit less bad in terms of hospitilisations/deaths (and this winter will be a lot less bad than last).
Masks definitely work. But I don’t consider having to wear a mask whenever I’m in the company of another person to be remotely a price worth paying for a significantly reduced chance of getting a bit of a sniffle, which all covid really amounts to for a young tri-vaccinated person these days. So I don’t wear masks, even when legally required to.