It seems to me there is a distinction to be made: It is one thing to conclude that, 1) Eliezer doesn’t know how to predict the date of AI Doom. That’s different from asserting that 2) AI Doom is not going to happen. 1 is not evidence for 2.
It seems to me there is a distinction to be made: It is one thing to conclude that, 1) Eliezer doesn’t know how to predict the date of AI Doom. That’s different from asserting that 2) AI Doom is not going to happen. 1 is not evidence for 2.