It’s not clear to me that these are more likely, especially if timelines are short. If we developed AI slowly over centuries? Then sure, absolutely likely. If it happens in the next 10 years? Then modifying humans, if it happens, will be a long-delayed afterthought. It’s also not at all clear to me that the biological portion is actually adding all that much in these scenarios, and I expect hybridization would be a transitional state.
If you will accept fictional explorations, there are, in fact, many stories that involve these two scenarios. Oftentimes authors choose to write such mergers and evolutions as the enemies of biological humanity, sometimes because that’s easier for readers to sympathize with, sometimes because they actually think that’s likely. I list some below.
Negative examples would include the Borg (Star Trek), the Cybermen (Doctor Who), or the Replicators in Stargate.
Somewhat more positive: Clarke’s Firstborn in the Time Odyssey trilogy (merger with spaceships) or (expressed only vaguely) humanity’s merge with universal and cosmic computers in Asimov’s The Last Question follow this trend.
More concrete and positive human examples show up a bunch in Greg Egan’s short fiction collections (e.g. The Jewel), and in Ian Banks’ Culture novels’ use of neural modifications and implants.
In webfiction, there’s also Marshall Brain’s Manna, where (slight spoiler)
both positive and negative visions of this show up
There’s even the virtual life extension tech in the TV show Upload, where the downsides are mostly about how humanity manages the transition.
There are more ambitious examples of how far this can go in Accelerando or the Orion’s Arm Universe collaborative project.
In a sense it’s even played for humor in They’re Made Out of Meat, where some of the briefly-mentioned alien species rhyme with this kind of transition.
After writing this I asked Gemini for more examples. It listed a bunch I haven’t read and can’t confirm.
Thanks for sharing this and for the examples layed out. I was not familiar with all of them, though many. but I did omit stating that I meant outside of fiction. My assumption is still relatively short timeframes of 5 to 15 years. Under those assumptions I dont necessarily see scenario 1 or 7 being more likely than scenario 8.
Quick note. I see a show like Upload being a potential representation of a facet of these scenarios. For example scenarios 2 to 7 could all have widespread virtual realities for the common person or those who opt out willingly or otherwise from base biological reality.
A part of my underlying assumption is that there are organizations, be it government, private or otherwise that are likely far mor advanced in their brain computer interface tech (BCI), than they would disclose publicly. There is also net negative value at some point in advancing AGI and BCI publicly versus privately. The first to get there, wins far more power using it in secret. The fiat money system is so far beyond repair and traceability that this is perfectly plausible to execute.
As to plausability and assumptions, my proposed approach is.. work within 5 to 15 year time frame, where we have advanced AGI but not ASI in the first 5. Then it is feasible for example to argue that it has integrated itself across critical system, compromised legacy equipment and code, led to rapid advancement in lab wet work and understanding of conciousness, resulted in development of new materials, had us build it a factory for manufacturing, is held by a select group who exploit it, etc.
I almost want to draft up a spreadsheet if anybody would be interested to collab.. track possible scenarios, possible variables, and probabilities based on present realities and possible near term wowza factors.
It’s not clear to me that these are more likely, especially if timelines are short. If we developed AI slowly over centuries? Then sure, absolutely likely. If it happens in the next 10 years? Then modifying humans, if it happens, will be a long-delayed afterthought. It’s also not at all clear to me that the biological portion is actually adding all that much in these scenarios, and I expect hybridization would be a transitional state.
There’s Robin Hanson’s The Age of Em.
On this forum, see What Does LessWrong/EA Think of Human Intelligence Augmentation as of mid-2023?
If you will accept fictional explorations, there are, in fact, many stories that involve these two scenarios. Oftentimes authors choose to write such mergers and evolutions as the enemies of biological humanity, sometimes because that’s easier for readers to sympathize with, sometimes because they actually think that’s likely. I list some below.
Negative examples would include the Borg (Star Trek), the Cybermen (Doctor Who), or the Replicators in Stargate.
Somewhat more positive: Clarke’s Firstborn in the Time Odyssey trilogy (merger with spaceships) or (expressed only vaguely) humanity’s merge with universal and cosmic computers in Asimov’s The Last Question follow this trend.
More concrete and positive human examples show up a bunch in Greg Egan’s short fiction collections (e.g. The Jewel), and in Ian Banks’ Culture novels’ use of neural modifications and implants.
In webfiction, there’s also Marshall Brain’s Manna, where (slight spoiler)
both positive and negative visions of this show up
or
virtual humanity
from Ra on qntm.org.
There’s even the virtual life extension tech in the TV show Upload, where the downsides are mostly about how humanity manages the transition.
There are more ambitious examples of how far this can go in Accelerando or the Orion’s Arm Universe collaborative project.
In a sense it’s even played for humor in They’re Made Out of Meat, where some of the briefly-mentioned alien species rhyme with this kind of transition.
After writing this I asked Gemini for more examples. It listed a bunch I haven’t read and can’t confirm.
Thanks for sharing this and for the examples layed out. I was not familiar with all of them, though many. but I did omit stating that I meant outside of fiction. My assumption is still relatively short timeframes of 5 to 15 years. Under those assumptions I dont necessarily see scenario 1 or 7 being more likely than scenario 8.
Quick note. I see a show like Upload being a potential representation of a facet of these scenarios. For example scenarios 2 to 7 could all have widespread virtual realities for the common person or those who opt out willingly or otherwise from base biological reality.
A part of my underlying assumption is that there are organizations, be it government, private or otherwise that are likely far mor advanced in their brain computer interface tech (BCI), than they would disclose publicly. There is also net negative value at some point in advancing AGI and BCI publicly versus privately. The first to get there, wins far more power using it in secret. The fiat money system is so far beyond repair and traceability that this is perfectly plausible to execute.
As to plausability and assumptions, my proposed approach is.. work within 5 to 15 year time frame, where we have advanced AGI but not ASI in the first 5. Then it is feasible for example to argue that it has integrated itself across critical system, compromised legacy equipment and code, led to rapid advancement in lab wet work and understanding of conciousness, resulted in development of new materials, had us build it a factory for manufacturing, is held by a select group who exploit it, etc.
I almost want to draft up a spreadsheet if anybody would be interested to collab.. track possible scenarios, possible variables, and probabilities based on present realities and possible near term wowza factors.