FWIW I’m 99% sure RJ made money from this election, and I’m 50% sure he made over 90k. Why would you update against someone who has consistently made enormous amounts of money betting on his beliefs?
Edit: looks like I was a bit overoptimistic about his profits but he supposedly did make a decent amount
But he’s been a professional politics gambler for years now, which seems like much stronger evidence for evaluating his calibration than the results of one election cycle?
That does not seem like very strong evidence his bets on the 2020 election were good. He did better than people who refused to bet at all. But he did worse than people who just bet on Biden. Many people figured out the Biden bet in the poker and gambling communities. You should certainly downgrade your opinion of RJ relative to people who did a lot better.
FWIW I’m 99% sure RJ made money from this election, and I’m 50% sure he made over 90k. Why would you update against someone who has consistently made enormous amounts of money betting on his beliefs?
Edit: looks like I was a bit overoptimistic about his profits but he supposedly did make a decent amount
https://twitter.com/rainbow_jeremy_/status/1336815220061327363
(keep in mind he lies all the time so this is only noisy evidence)
Many people including myself got way better percentage and absolute returns on the election. He was way too optimistic.
But he’s been a professional politics gambler for years now, which seems like much stronger evidence for evaluating his calibration than the results of one election cycle?
That does not seem like very strong evidence his bets on the 2020 election were good. He did better than people who refused to bet at all. But he did worse than people who just bet on Biden. Many people figured out the Biden bet in the poker and gambling communities. You should certainly downgrade your opinion of RJ relative to people who did a lot better.