Just commenting that the progress to thermonuclear weapons represented another discontinuous jump (1-3 orders of magnitude).
Also, whether von Neumann was right depends on the probability for the cold war ending peacefully. If we retrospectively conclude that we had a 90% chance of total thermonuclear war (and just got very lucky in real life) then he was definitely right. If we instead argue from the observed outcome (or historical studies conclude that the eventual outcome was not due to luck but rather due to the inescapable logic of MAD), then he was totally nuts.
Near-misses are not necessarily a very strong guide to estimating retrospective risk. Both sides were incentivized to hide their fail-safes for escalation; to credibly commit to having a twitchy retaliation finger, and at the same time to not actually retaliate (the game is first chicken, then ultimatum, and never prisoner’s dilemma). So I would be very wary of trusting the historical record on “what if Petrov had not kept a cool mind”.
Just commenting that the progress to thermonuclear weapons represented another discontinuous jump (1-3 orders of magnitude).
Also, whether von Neumann was right depends on the probability for the cold war ending peacefully. If we retrospectively conclude that we had a 90% chance of total thermonuclear war (and just got very lucky in real life) then he was definitely right. If we instead argue from the observed outcome (or historical studies conclude that the eventual outcome was not due to luck but rather due to the inescapable logic of MAD), then he was totally nuts.
Near-misses are not necessarily a very strong guide to estimating retrospective risk. Both sides were incentivized to hide their fail-safes for escalation; to credibly commit to having a twitchy retaliation finger, and at the same time to not actually retaliate (the game is first chicken, then ultimatum, and never prisoner’s dilemma). So I would be very wary of trusting the historical record on “what if Petrov had not kept a cool mind”.