Do you know of any recent arguments from individuals with timelines like you mention, which are long/broad and emphasize uncertainty? At least the pool of people making a convincing case for the >100 year timelines has been drying up, from what I can see. Even Paul Christiano expects “40% on singularity by 2040”.
Do you know of any recent arguments from individuals with timelines like you mention, which are long/broad and emphasize uncertainty? At least the pool of people making a convincing case for the >100 year timelines has been drying up, from what I can see. Even Paul Christiano expects “40% on singularity by 2040”.