Good catch, it should be Beta(991, 11). The prior is uniform = Beta(1,1 ) and the data is (990 successes, 10 fails)
Yup, sorry, I made two separate mistakes there (misparameterizing the beta distribution by alpha+beta,beta rather than alpha,beta, and the off-by-one error) -- but at least my wrong parameters were less wrong than yours :-).
It looks like you didn’t replace all the distributions with the update?
Good catch, it should be Beta(991, 11). The prior is uniform = Beta(1,1 ) and the data is (990 successes, 10 fails)
Yup, sorry, I made two separate mistakes there (misparameterizing the beta distribution by alpha+beta,beta rather than alpha,beta, and the off-by-one error) -- but at least my wrong parameters were less wrong than yours :-).
It looks like you didn’t replace all the distributions with the update?