To clarify, the above argument isn’t a slam dunk in favor of “something bad will happen because of AGI in the next 7 years”. I could make that argument, but I haven’t, and so I wouldn’t necessarily hope that you would believe it.
But what about the 10 years after that, if we still have no global coordination? What’s the mechanism by which nobody ever does anything dumb, without most people being aware of safety considerations and no restriction whatsoever on who gets to do what.
To clarify, the above argument isn’t a slam dunk in favor of “something bad will happen because of AGI in the next 7 years”. I could make that argument, but I haven’t, and so I wouldn’t necessarily hope that you would believe it.
But what about the 10 years after that, if we still have no global coordination? What’s the mechanism by which nobody ever does anything dumb, without most people being aware of safety considerations and no restriction whatsoever on who gets to do what.