Something I personally find convincing and index pretty heavily on are surveys of people in the field. For example, this Bostrom survey seems to be a classic and says:
Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022
Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040
Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075
I recognize that it is almost 10 years old though. I also have more epistemic respect for Eliezer, and to a somewhat lesser extent MIRI, and so I weigh their stances correspondingly more heavily. It’s hard to know how much more heavily I should weigh them though.
Anyway, I think that surveys are probably one of the best persuasive tools we have. If lots of experts are saying the same thing, then, well, there’s probably something to it. At least that’s how I expect a lot of smart people to think.
This excerpt from HPMoR comes to mind regarding the value of presenting a united front.
And other students arose, from other tables, making their way to where Draco Malfoy stood, arranging themselves at his side, or behind him, or before him.
There was a dread silence in the Great Hall, a sense of the world shifting, of realigning Powers, almost tangible in the air.
“My father, Owen Greengrass, with the consent and full backing of my mother, the Lady of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Greengrass,” Daphne Greengrass spoke.
“And my forefather, Charles, of the House of Nott,” said the former Lieutenant Nott, once Theodore of Chaos, now standing behind Draco Malfoy.
“And my grand-aunt, Amelia, of the House of Bones, also Director of the Department of Magical Law Enforcement,” said Susan Bones, who stood anext Daphne Greengrass, beside whom she had fought.
“And my grandmother, Augusta, of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Longbottom,” said Neville Longbottom, who had returned for this one night.
“And my father, Lucius, the Lord Malfoy, of the Noble and Most Ancient House of Malfoy!”
“Together with Alanna Howe constituting a majority of the Hogwarts Board of Governors!” Daphne Greengrass said clearly. “Have, to ensure the safety of all students, including their own children, passed the following Educational Decrees upon the Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry!”
It also makes me think of when a bunch of scientists all sign a letter endorsing some position.
Furthermore, I think that these surveys should, I’m not sure how to say this, but be pushed more heavily? Let me describe my own experience.
I’ve been hanging around LessWrong for a while. I’m sure there are a bunch of other more recent surveys than the Bostrom one. Actually, I know there are, I recall seeing them on LessWrong a bunch of times. But they don’t stick out to me. And when I encountered them, I remember myself finding them to be somewhat confusing. Maybe they should be located more prominently on websites like LessWrong and MIRI.
And maybe it’d be worth spending some time working on presenting it in a way that is more easily understood. Perhaps via some user research. I’m not in the field so others probably have an easier time parsing them than I do, but then again, Illusion of Transparency. Maybe explanations should in fact be aimed at someone like me.
A few years ago, an eminent scientist once told me how he’d written an explanation of his field aimed at a much lower technical level than usual. He had thought it would be useful to academics outside the field, or even reporters. This ended up being one of his most popular papers within his field, cited more often than anything else he’d written.
This all assumes of course that experts are, in fact, mostly in agreement that the probability of things like a fast takeoff are high. If they are not, well, I’m not sure exactly how to proceed, but maybe some more discussion is in order.
Something I personally find convincing and index pretty heavily on are surveys of people in the field. For example, this Bostrom survey seems to be a classic and says:
I recognize that it is almost 10 years old though. I also have more epistemic respect for Eliezer, and to a somewhat lesser extent MIRI, and so I weigh their stances correspondingly more heavily. It’s hard to know how much more heavily I should weigh them though.
Anyway, I think that surveys are probably one of the best persuasive tools we have. If lots of experts are saying the same thing, then, well, there’s probably something to it. At least that’s how I expect a lot of smart people to think.
This excerpt from HPMoR comes to mind regarding the value of presenting a united front.
It also makes me think of when a bunch of scientists all sign a letter endorsing some position.
Furthermore, I think that these surveys should, I’m not sure how to say this, but be pushed more heavily? Let me describe my own experience.
I’ve been hanging around LessWrong for a while. I’m sure there are a bunch of other more recent surveys than the Bostrom one. Actually, I know there are, I recall seeing them on LessWrong a bunch of times. But they don’t stick out to me. And when I encountered them, I remember myself finding them to be somewhat confusing. Maybe they should be located more prominently on websites like LessWrong and MIRI.
And maybe it’d be worth spending some time working on presenting it in a way that is more easily understood. Perhaps via some user research. I’m not in the field so others probably have an easier time parsing them than I do, but then again, Illusion of Transparency. Maybe explanations should in fact be aimed at someone like me.
This all assumes of course that experts are, in fact, mostly in agreement that the probability of things like a fast takeoff are high. If they are not, well, I’m not sure exactly how to proceed, but maybe some more discussion is in order.