This was heavily upvoted at the time of posting, including by me. It turns out to be mostly wrong. AI Impacts just released a survey of 4271 NeurIPS and ICML researchers conducted in 2021 and found that the median year for expected HLMI is 2059, down only two years from 2061 since 2016. Looks like the last five years of evidence hasn’t swayed the field much. My inside view says they’re wrong, but the opinions of the field and our inability to anticipate them are both important.
This was heavily upvoted at the time of posting, including by me. It turns out to be mostly wrong. AI Impacts just released a survey of 4271 NeurIPS and ICML researchers conducted in 2021 and found that the median year for expected HLMI is 2059, down only two years from 2061 since 2016. Looks like the last five years of evidence hasn’t swayed the field much. My inside view says they’re wrong, but the opinions of the field and our inability to anticipate them are both important.
https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/