I meant it’s a hard bet to win because how exactly would I collect. That said, I’m genuinely not sure if it’s a good field for betting. Roughly speaking, there’s two sorts of bets: “put your money where your mouth is” bets and “hedging” bets. The former are “for fun” and signaling/commitment purposes; the latter are where the actual benefit comes in. But with both bets, it’s difficult to figure out a bet structure that works if the market gets destroyed in the near future! We could bet on confidence, but I’m genuinely not sure if there’ll be one or two “big papers” before the end shifting probabilities. So the model of the world might be one where we see nothing for years and then all die. Hard for markets to model.
Doing a “money now/money later” bet structure works, I guess, like the other commenter said, but I don’t know of any prediction markets that are set up for that.
I meant it’s a hard bet to win because how exactly would I collect. That said, I’m genuinely not sure if it’s a good field for betting. Roughly speaking, there’s two sorts of bets: “put your money where your mouth is” bets and “hedging” bets. The former are “for fun” and signaling/commitment purposes; the latter are where the actual benefit comes in. But with both bets, it’s difficult to figure out a bet structure that works if the market gets destroyed in the near future! We could bet on confidence, but I’m genuinely not sure if there’ll be one or two “big papers” before the end shifting probabilities. So the model of the world might be one where we see nothing for years and then all die. Hard for markets to model.
Doing a “money now/money later” bet structure works, I guess, like the other commenter said, but I don’t know of any prediction markets that are set up for that.