I believe one of your assumptions could stand to be examined; the final risk to others should be multiplied by the chance that the immunity typically conferred by having antibodies will hold true for this variation of corona and any mutations that now or will then exist. Antibody effectiveness is probably the case, and I haven’t heard anything about this virus being an especially rapid mutator, but I’m personally not more than 90% certain of all this.
The latest data I read was that it averages 1 mutation every other transmission. I don’t know how this compares to other viruses, but with 7 and a half million confirmed cases, that’s a lot of mutations (running in parallel).
I believe one of your assumptions could stand to be examined; the final risk to others should be multiplied by the chance that the immunity typically conferred by having antibodies will hold true for this variation of corona and any mutations that now or will then exist. Antibody effectiveness is probably the case, and I haven’t heard anything about this virus being an especially rapid mutator, but I’m personally not more than 90% certain of all this.
The latest data I read was that it averages 1 mutation every other transmission. I don’t know how this compares to other viruses, but with 7 and a half million confirmed cases, that’s a lot of mutations (running in parallel).