You get winner’s curse even if results are totally random. If you have an unbiased estimator with a random error term, and select only the highest estimate in your sample, the expected error is positive (i.e. you probably overestimated it).
You get winner’s curse even if results are totally random. If you have an unbiased estimator with a random error term, and select only the highest estimate in your sample, the expected error is positive (i.e. you probably overestimated it).