It seems like you assume implicitly that there’s an equal probability of the other doctor defecting: (0 + 10,000)/2 < (5,000 + 15,000)/2. That makes sense in the original prisoner’s dilemma, but given that you can communicate, why assume this?
It doesn’t make a difference. I’m better off defecting no matter what the other doctor does. Like I said, I’ll try to convince him to cooperate and then I’ll break our agreement. If I succeed, good for me; if I fail, at least I’ll have saved 5000 people.
That’s only if there’s a single iteration of this dilemma, of course. If I have reason to believe there will be three iterations and if I’m pretty sure I managed to convince the other doctor, I should cooperate (10000 * 3 > 15 000 + 5000 + 5000).
What if I’m wrong? Well, what if my house gets hit by a meteor today, and I get seriously wounded? Should I then regret not having left my house today?
I could wish I had left, but regretting my decision would be silly. We can only ever make decisions with the information that’s available to us at the moment. Right now I have every reason to believe my house will not get hit by a meteor, and I feel like staying at home, so that’s the best decision. Likewise, in the OP’s scenario I have every reason to believe the disease is malaria, so getting my hands on as much malaria medication as I can is the best decision. That’s all there is to it.
But in this case, someone with a degree of astronomical knowledge comparable to yours, acting in good faith, has come up to you and has said “I’m 99% confident that a meteor will hit your house today. You should leave.” Why not investigate his claim before dismissing it?
The original post specifies that even taking account of the other doctor’s opinion, we’re still 99% sure. This seems pretty unlikely, unless we know that the other doctor is really very rationally deficient, but it’s the scenario we’re discussing.
It seems like you assume implicitly that there’s an equal probability of the other doctor defecting: (0 + 10,000)/2 < (5,000 + 15,000)/2. That makes sense in the original prisoner’s dilemma, but given that you can communicate, why assume this?
It doesn’t make a difference. I’m better off defecting no matter what the other doctor does. Like I said, I’ll try to convince him to cooperate and then I’ll break our agreement. If I succeed, good for me; if I fail, at least I’ll have saved 5000 people.
That’s only if there’s a single iteration of this dilemma, of course. If I have reason to believe there will be three iterations and if I’m pretty sure I managed to convince the other doctor, I should cooperate (10000 * 3 > 15 000 + 5000 + 5000).
What if you’re wrong?
What if I’m wrong? Well, what if my house gets hit by a meteor today, and I get seriously wounded? Should I then regret not having left my house today?
I could wish I had left, but regretting my decision would be silly. We can only ever make decisions with the information that’s available to us at the moment. Right now I have every reason to believe my house will not get hit by a meteor, and I feel like staying at home, so that’s the best decision. Likewise, in the OP’s scenario I have every reason to believe the disease is malaria, so getting my hands on as much malaria medication as I can is the best decision. That’s all there is to it.
But in this case, someone with a degree of astronomical knowledge comparable to yours, acting in good faith, has come up to you and has said “I’m 99% confident that a meteor will hit your house today. You should leave.” Why not investigate his claim before dismissing it?
The original post specifies that even taking account of the other doctor’s opinion, we’re still 99% sure. This seems pretty unlikely, unless we know that the other doctor is really very rationally deficient, but it’s the scenario we’re discussing.