I don’t think inferring a probability anywhere near as high as 20% is justified. If, conditional on finding dragons the value of the knowledge is lower than the harms of being known as a dragon believer, then you shouldn’t go check no matter how low your prior.
I don’t think inferring a probability anywhere near as high as 20% is justified. If, conditional on finding dragons the value of the knowledge is lower than the harms of being known as a dragon believer, then you shouldn’t go check no matter how low your prior.