In fact it’s hard to find probable worlds where having kids is a really bad idea, IMO.
One scenario where you might want to have kids in general, but not if timelines are short, is if you feel positive about having kids, but you view the first few years of having kids as a chore (ie, it costs you time, sleep, and money). So if you view kids as an investment of the form “take a hit to your happiness now, get more happiness back later”, then not having kids now seems justifiable. But I think that this sort of reasoning requires pretty short timelines (which I have), with high confidence (which I don’t have), and high confidence that the first few years of having kids is net-negative happiness for you (which I don’t have).
(But overall I endorse the claim that, mostly, if you would have otherwise wanted kids, you should still have them.)
My anecdotal evidence from relatives with toddlers is that the first few years of having your first child is indeed the most stressful experience of your life. I barely even meet them anymore, because all their free time is eaten by childcare. Not sure about happiness, but people who openly admit to regretting having their kids face huge social stigma, and I doubt you could get honest answer on that question.
One scenario where you might want to have kids in general, but not if timelines are short, is if you feel positive about having kids, but you view the first few years of having kids as a chore (ie, it costs you time, sleep, and money). So if you view kids as an investment of the form “take a hit to your happiness now, get more happiness back later”, then not having kids now seems justifiable. But I think that this sort of reasoning requires pretty short timelines (which I have), with high confidence (which I don’t have), and high confidence that the first few years of having kids is net-negative happiness for you (which I don’t have).
(But overall I endorse the claim that, mostly, if you would have otherwise wanted kids, you should still have them.)
My anecdotal evidence from relatives with toddlers is that the first few years of having your first child is indeed the most stressful experience of your life. I barely even meet them anymore, because all their free time is eaten by childcare. Not sure about happiness, but people who openly admit to regretting having their kids face huge social stigma, and I doubt you could get honest answer on that question.