That might explain why many individual researchers failed, but it can’t be common enough to filter out everyone thinking about the problem except SDO. To see how many researchers we would expect to find this solution, we must multiply our estimates of the number thinking about it, by the fraction of those who know about the correct statistical technique of using distributions, multiplied by the odds they would apply this technique, do it correctly, and consider the result worth publishing.
N=R*f(s)*f(a)*f(c)*f(p)
Using personal estimates I obtained a result of N=2.998, close to the observed number of publishers of the paper
Tut tut tut! Instead of just multiplying together those factors, you need to consider the probability distribution on each one and estimate the resulting probability distribution of N. Most of the distribution will probably have smaller N than your point estimate.
That might explain why many individual researchers failed, but it can’t be common enough to filter out everyone thinking about the problem except SDO. To see how many researchers we would expect to find this solution, we must multiply our estimates of the number thinking about it, by the fraction of those who know about the correct statistical technique of using distributions, multiplied by the odds they would apply this technique, do it correctly, and consider the result worth publishing.
N=R*f(s)*f(a)*f(c)*f(p)
Using personal estimates I obtained a result of N=2.998, close to the observed number of publishers of the paper
Tut tut tut! Instead of just multiplying together those factors, you need to consider the probability distribution on each one and estimate the resulting probability distribution of N. Most of the distribution will probably have smaller N than your point estimate.
[:-)]