It seems that I have failed to communicate clearly, and for that, I apologise. I am agnostic on most of your post.
Let’s go back to the original quote
Hinkley Point C is an ongoing nuclear power project in the UK, which has seen massive cost overruns and delays. But if you take prices for electricity generation in 1960, and increase them as much as concrete has, you’re not far off from the current estimated cost per kwh of Hinkley Point C, or some other recent projects considered too expensive.
I understand this to mean that [plant price increase roughly in line with inflation]
this does not distinguish between [lack of innovation while everything is inflated] versus [lizard men sabotaging construction].
for [lack of innovation while everything is inflated] to hold you have to argue that [there is a lack of innovation] separately. Or is your argument in reverse? [plant price increase roughly in line with inflation] → [there must be a lack of innovation].
because some other reasons could be responsible, e.g [lizard men sabotaging construction]
Whether the lizard men exist or not I am not qualified to say. Even less to say what they are if they do exist.
You seem to believe there are no lizard men, just pure inflation. Other people seem to believe otherwise.
But [plant price increase roughly in line with inflation] does not seem to support either.
as for the rest,
yes ALARA is overblown, we shared this belief
Were regulations on nuclear, relative to appropriate levels of regulation, more expensive than regulations and legal barriers for other energy sources?
I am not sure
rules about low-level waste were driven by direct public concern about that, which forced the NRC to abandon proposed rule changes. I actually think the public concern about low-level waste was sort of reasonable, because some companies could sometimes put highly radioactive waste in supposedly low-level waste. What do you do when you don’t understand technical details but a group of experts has proven itself to sometimes be unreliable and biased?
agree to disagree here, I believe privately that the level of concern is too high compared to actual risk. But I am uneducated in such matters and the error bar is big.
I understand this to mean that [plant price increase roughly in line with inflation]
That’s not exactly my point. The rate of cost increase for concrete products was higher than the average inflation rate. When you consider that, some inflation-adjusted cost increase doesn’t mean people got worse at building nuclear plants, which is the assumption made in many articles about nuclear power costs.
you have to argue that [there is a lack of innovation] separately
I did:
Which has had more tech progress, home construction or nuclear plant construction? I’d argue for the former: electric nailguns and screw guns, and automated lumber production. Plus, US home construction has had less increase in average wages, because you can’t take your truck to a Home Depot parking lot to pick up Mexican guys to make a nuclear plant.
US electricity costs decreased thanks to progress on gas turbines, fracking, solar panels, and wind turbines. Gas turbines got better alloys and shapes. Solar panels got thinner thanks to diamond-studded wire saws. Wind turbines got fiberglass. Nuclear power didn’t have proportionate technological progress.
agree to disagree here, I believe privately that the level of concern is too high compared to actual risk. But I am uneducated in such matters and the error bar is big.
You’re misunderstanding my point: whether or not the public level of concern over that is correct given a good understanding of the physics/biology/management/etc, I think it’s reasonable given that knowing the technical details isn’t feasible for most people and experts were proven untrustworthy.
It seems that I have failed to communicate clearly, and for that, I apologise. I am agnostic on most of your post.
Let’s go back to the original quote
I understand this to mean that [plant price increase roughly in line with inflation]
this does not distinguish between [lack of innovation while everything is inflated] versus [lizard men sabotaging construction].
for [lack of innovation while everything is inflated] to hold you have to argue that [there is a lack of innovation] separately. Or is your argument in reverse? [plant price increase roughly in line with inflation] → [there must be a lack of innovation].
because some other reasons could be responsible, e.g [lizard men sabotaging construction]
Whether the lizard men exist or not I am not qualified to say. Even less to say what they are if they do exist.
You seem to believe there are no lizard men, just pure inflation. Other people seem to believe otherwise.
But [plant price increase roughly in line with inflation] does not seem to support either.
as for the rest,
yes ALARA is overblown, we shared this belief
I am not sure
agree to disagree here, I believe privately that the level of concern is too high compared to actual risk. But I am uneducated in such matters and the error bar is big.
That’s not exactly my point. The rate of cost increase for concrete products was higher than the average inflation rate. When you consider that, some inflation-adjusted cost increase doesn’t mean people got worse at building nuclear plants, which is the assumption made in many articles about nuclear power costs.
I did:
You’re misunderstanding my point: whether or not the public level of concern over that is correct given a good understanding of the physics/biology/management/etc, I think it’s reasonable given that knowing the technical details isn’t feasible for most people and experts were proven untrustworthy.
I see, I failed at comprehension then, thank you for your replies