So regarding MIRI, you could say that experts disagreed about one of the 5 theses (intelligence explosion), as only 10% thought a human level AI could reach a strongly superhuman level within 2 years.
I should note that it’s not obvious what the experts responding to this survey thought “greatly surpass” meant. If “do everything humans do, but at x2 speed” qualifies, you might expect AI to “greatly surpass” human abilities in 2 years even on a fairly unexciting Robin Hansonish scenario of brain emulation + continued hardware improvement at roughly current rates.
I should note that it’s not obvious what the experts responding to this survey thought “greatly surpass” meant. If “do everything humans do, but at x2 speed” qualifies, you might expect AI to “greatly surpass” human abilities in 2 years even on a fairly unexciting Robin Hansonish scenario of brain emulation + continued hardware improvement at roughly current rates.