The highly specific predictions should be lowered in their probability when updating on the statement like ‘unpredictable’.
That depends what your initial probability is and why. If it already low due to updates on predictions about the system, then updating on “unpredictable” will increase the probability by lowering the strength of those predictions. Since destruction of humanity is rather important, even if the existential AI risk scenario is of low probability it matters exactly how low.
This of course has the same shape as Pascal’s mugging, but I do not believe that SI claims are of low enough probability to be dismissed as effectively zero.
Not everything is equally easy to describe as equations.
That was in fact my point, which might indicate that we are likely to be talking past each other. What I tried to say is that an artificial intelligence system is not necessarily constructed as an explicit optimization process over an explicit model. If the model and the process are implicit in its cognitive architecture then making predictions about what the system will do in terms of a search are of limited usefulness.
And even talking about models, getting back to this:
cutting down the solution space and cutting down the model
On further thought, this is not even necessarily true. The solution space and the model will have to be pre-cut by someone (presumably human engineers) who doesn’t know where the solution actually is. A self-improving system will have to expand both if the solution is outside them in order to find it. A system that can reach a solution even when initially over-constrained is more useful than the one that can’t, and so someone will build it.
I think you have a very narrow vision of ‘unstable’.
I do not understand what you are saying here. If you mean that by unstable I mean a highly specific trajectory a system that lost stability will follow, then it is because all those trajectories where the system crashes and burns are unimportant. If you have a trillion optimization systems on a planet running at the same time you have to be really sure that nothing can’t go wrong.
I just realized I derailed the discussion. The whole AGI in specialized AI world is irrelevant to what started this thread. In the sense of chronology of being developed I cannot tell how likely it is that AGI could overtake specialized intelligences. It really depends whether there is a critical insight missing for the constructions of AI. If it is just an extension of current software then specialized intelligences will win for reasons you state. Although some of the caveats I wrote above still apply.
If there is a critical difference in architecture between current software and AI then whoever hits that insight will likely overtake everyone else. If they happen to be working on AGI or even any system entangled with the real world, I don’t see how once can guarantee that the consequences will not be catastrophic.
Too much anthropomorphization.
Well, I in turn believe you are applying overzealous anti-anthropomorphization. Which is normally a perfectly good heuristic when dealing with software, but the fact is human intelligence is the only thing in “intelligence” reference class we have, and although AI will almost certainly be different they will not necessarily be different in every possible way. Especially considering the possibility of AI that are either directly base on human-like architecture or even are designed to directly interact with humans, which requires having at least some human-compatible models and behaviours.
That depends what your initial probability is and why. If it already low due to updates on predictions about the system, then updating on “unpredictable” will increase the probability by lowering the strength of those predictions. Since destruction of humanity is rather important, even if the existential AI risk scenario is of low probability it matters exactly how low.
The importance should not weight upon our estimation, unless you proclaim that I should succumb to a bias. Furthermore, it is the destruction of the mankind that is the prediction being made here. Via multitude of assumptions, the most dubious one being that the system will have real-world, physical goal. Number of paperclips is not easy.
On further thought, this is not even necessarily true. The solution space and the model will have to be pre-cut by someone (presumably human engineers) who doesn’t know where the solution actually is. A self-improving system will have to expand both if the solution is outside them in order to find it. A system that can reach a solution even when initially over-constrained is more useful than the one that can’t, and so someone will build it.
Sorry, you are factually wrong as of how the design of automatic tools work. Rest of your argument presses too hard to recruit multitude of importance related biases and cognitive fallacies that were described on this very site.
If you have a trillion optimization systems on a planet running at the same time you have to be really sure that nothing can’t go wrong.
No I don’t, if the systems that work right took all the low hanging fruit from picking by one that goes wrong.
Well, I in turn believe you are applying overzealous anti-anthropomorphization. Which is normally a perfectly good heuristic when dealing with software, but the fact is human intelligence is the only thing in “intelligence” reference class we have, and although AI will almost certainly be different they will not necessarily be different in every possible way. Especially considering the possibility of AI that are either directly base on human-like architecture or even are designed to directly interact with humans, which requires having at least some human-compatible models and behaviours.
You seem to keep forgetting of all the software that is fundamentally different from human mind, but solves the problems very well. The issue reads like a belief in extreme superiority of man over machine, except it is a superiority of anthropomorphized software over all other software.
That depends what your initial probability is and why. If it already low due to updates on predictions about the system, then updating on “unpredictable” will increase the probability by lowering the strength of those predictions. Since destruction of humanity is rather important, even if the existential AI risk scenario is of low probability it matters exactly how low.
This of course has the same shape as Pascal’s mugging, but I do not believe that SI claims are of low enough probability to be dismissed as effectively zero.
That was in fact my point, which might indicate that we are likely to be talking past each other. What I tried to say is that an artificial intelligence system is not necessarily constructed as an explicit optimization process over an explicit model. If the model and the process are implicit in its cognitive architecture then making predictions about what the system will do in terms of a search are of limited usefulness.
And even talking about models, getting back to this:
On further thought, this is not even necessarily true. The solution space and the model will have to be pre-cut by someone (presumably human engineers) who doesn’t know where the solution actually is. A self-improving system will have to expand both if the solution is outside them in order to find it. A system that can reach a solution even when initially over-constrained is more useful than the one that can’t, and so someone will build it.
I do not understand what you are saying here. If you mean that by unstable I mean a highly specific trajectory a system that lost stability will follow, then it is because all those trajectories where the system crashes and burns are unimportant. If you have a trillion optimization systems on a planet running at the same time you have to be really sure that nothing can’t go wrong.
I just realized I derailed the discussion. The whole AGI in specialized AI world is irrelevant to what started this thread. In the sense of chronology of being developed I cannot tell how likely it is that AGI could overtake specialized intelligences. It really depends whether there is a critical insight missing for the constructions of AI. If it is just an extension of current software then specialized intelligences will win for reasons you state. Although some of the caveats I wrote above still apply.
If there is a critical difference in architecture between current software and AI then whoever hits that insight will likely overtake everyone else. If they happen to be working on AGI or even any system entangled with the real world, I don’t see how once can guarantee that the consequences will not be catastrophic.
Well, I in turn believe you are applying overzealous anti-anthropomorphization. Which is normally a perfectly good heuristic when dealing with software, but the fact is human intelligence is the only thing in “intelligence” reference class we have, and although AI will almost certainly be different they will not necessarily be different in every possible way. Especially considering the possibility of AI that are either directly base on human-like architecture or even are designed to directly interact with humans, which requires having at least some human-compatible models and behaviours.
The importance should not weight upon our estimation, unless you proclaim that I should succumb to a bias. Furthermore, it is the destruction of the mankind that is the prediction being made here. Via multitude of assumptions, the most dubious one being that the system will have real-world, physical goal. Number of paperclips is not easy.
Sorry, you are factually wrong as of how the design of automatic tools work. Rest of your argument presses too hard to recruit multitude of importance related biases and cognitive fallacies that were described on this very site.
No I don’t, if the systems that work right took all the low hanging fruit from picking by one that goes wrong.
You seem to keep forgetting of all the software that is fundamentally different from human mind, but solves the problems very well. The issue reads like a belief in extreme superiority of man over machine, except it is a superiority of anthropomorphized software over all other software.