I’m definitely afraid that this is the most likely outcome. It’s a classic collective action problem. It’s interesting that the NBA will take action on social issues, but you could look at those and say they’ll only do it if it helps them financially, not if it will actually affect the bottom line. It would take concerted efforts from players (such as Enes Kanter) to get them to do anything. You would only have to convince 400 people in the league to make something like this happen-much smaller than trying to move the state dept. etc.
You may be correct, that at the end of the day folks just don’t care about sports very much. If you think there is a core fanbase of around 100 million people rabid fans in China, I believe that may be enough to move the needle. Again, this is not a high percentage play, but I think it’s an interesting option, that’s higher than the other options I see on the board to try to prevent this really bad thing from happening.
I think 100m is overstating the hardcore fan base by at least a factor of 10. You can do some fermi analysis to come up with a better ballpark number. Start with the middle class, further segment by young males, further segment by interest in NBA, then multiply by a hardcore fan factor ratio, which you could estimate by taking the ratio in the USA and applying a discount rate.
I’m definitely afraid that this is the most likely outcome. It’s a classic collective action problem. It’s interesting that the NBA will take action on social issues, but you could look at those and say they’ll only do it if it helps them financially, not if it will actually affect the bottom line. It would take concerted efforts from players (such as Enes Kanter) to get them to do anything. You would only have to convince 400 people in the league to make something like this happen-much smaller than trying to move the state dept. etc.
You may be correct, that at the end of the day folks just don’t care about sports very much. If you think there is a core fanbase of around 100 million people rabid fans in China, I believe that may be enough to move the needle. Again, this is not a high percentage play, but I think it’s an interesting option, that’s higher than the other options I see on the board to try to prevent this really bad thing from happening.
I think 100m is overstating the hardcore fan base by at least a factor of 10. You can do some fermi analysis to come up with a better ballpark number. Start with the middle class, further segment by young males, further segment by interest in NBA, then multiply by a hardcore fan factor ratio, which you could estimate by taking the ratio in the USA and applying a discount rate.
Ahh-great idea!