From maybe 2013 to 2016, DeepMind was at the forefront of hype around AGI. Since then, they’ve done less hype.
I’m confused about the evidence for these claims. What are some categories of hype-producing actions that DeepMind did between 2013 and 2016 and hasn’t done since? Or just examples.
One example is the AlphaGo documentary—DeepMind has not made any other documentaries about their results. Another related example is “playing your Go engine against the top Go player in a heavily publicized event.”
In the wake of big public releases like ChatGPT and Sydney and GPT-4
Was ChatGPT a “big public release”? It seems like they just made a blog post and a nice UI? Am I missing something?
In order to specifically better understand acceleration risk from the deployment of GPT-4, we recruited expert forecasters[26] to predict how tweaking various features of the GPT-4 deployment (e.g., timing, communication strategy, and method of commercialization) might affect (concrete indicators of) acceleration risk. Forecasters predicted several things would reduce acceleration, including delaying deployment of GPT-4 by a further six months and taking a quieter communications strategy around the GPT-4 deployment (as compared to the GPT-3 deployment). We also learned from recent deployments that the effectiveness of quiet communications strategy in mitigating acceleration risk can be limited, in particular when novel accessible capabilities are concerned.
In my view, OpenAI is not much worse than DeepMind in terms of hype-producing publicity strategy. The problem is that ChatGPT and GPT-4 are really useful systems, so the hype comes naturally.
I’m confused about the evidence for these claims. What are some categories of hype-producing actions that DeepMind did between 2013 and 2016 and hasn’t done since? Or just examples.
One example is the AlphaGo documentary—DeepMind has not made any other documentaries about their results. Another related example is “playing your Go engine against the top Go player in a heavily publicized event.”
Was ChatGPT a “big public release”? It seems like they just made a blog post and a nice UI? Am I missing something?
On a somewhat separate note, this part of the “Acceleration” section (2.12) of of the GPT-4 system card seems relevant:
In my view, OpenAI is not much worse than DeepMind in terms of hype-producing publicity strategy. The problem is that ChatGPT and GPT-4 are really useful systems, so the hype comes naturally.