No language model will write a book without substantial aid, that ends up on the New York Times bestseller list. 97%
“Essays from the Noosphere: Twelve Artificial Intelligences Reflect on Life, the Universe, and Everything”
This seems to ignore the quite plausible scenario where an AI-written book finds itself a Schelling point for folks who use their bookshelf as a signaling mechanism. Being 100% AI and 0% human would be a boon in that scenario even if the book is a little rough around the edges.
“Essays from the Noosphere: Twelve Artificial Intelligences Reflect on Life, the Universe, and Everything”
This seems to ignore the quite plausible scenario where an AI-written book finds itself a Schelling point for folks who use their bookshelf as a signaling mechanism. Being 100% AI and 0% human would be a boon in that scenario even if the book is a little rough around the edges.
That’s a good point, but it doesn’t reduce my credence much. Perhaps 94% or 95% is more appropriate? I’d be willing to bet on this.
I think you might have an inflated sense of how hard it is to get on the NYT bestseller list. Just go a little bit viral for one week and you’re done. https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/9/13/16257084/bestseller-lists-explained