[03:15] It’s between 7.5 and 8 times as likely that a black person will commit a violent crime as a white person.
How was this statistic collected? I suspect what they actually found is that it’s between 7.5 and 8 times as likely that a black person will get caught having committed a violent crime as a white person.
If you want to quibble that government is more likley to make things that men, the young and black people do, illegal feel free to, but considering all three opening statements are also true for violent crimes and that victim reports basically match arrest ratios on all of them. I think all three are blatantly obviously true, but somewhat impolite to state.
Especially since the given numbers more or less match the findings of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). A factor of 7 is pretty much in the range for some crimes, though I don’t recall which ones off hand as this really is a boring subject. But even if the real numbers are like 6 or 5 or 4 times for rape or murder or aggravated assault (for blacks in general the numbers are somewhere there, though obviously men are more criminal than women) else is pretty much nitpicking since it dosen’t undermine Aurini’s point if we are talking about such huge numbers.
But I do recall something interesting, the arrest ratios basically match the crime victim surveys. Also recall that most black crime is black on black.
Doesn’t this just show that the judicial system is neither more nor less racist than the victims? (Honest question, and does not per se invalidate your conclusion.)
Also recall that most black crime is black on black.
Consider that white on black violent crime is seen a big deal in American society, since it nearly instantly raises suspicions of racial motives and is disproportionately interesting to the media, wouldn’t the average black person tend to remember such encounters? A different possible explanation could be that white people recall or report less crime than black people in general but… really?
But even if the real numbers are like 6 or 5 or 4 times [...] else is pretty much nitpicking
Edited to explicitly mark it as such.
But I do recall something interesting, the arrest ratios basically match the crime victim surveys. Also recall that most black crime is black on black.
Interesting. The right question for a white person concerned with their safety to be asking is not whether black people or white people are more violent, it is whether black people or white people are more violent against white people; so, are the answers to these two questions different?
Interesting. The right question for a white person concerned with their safety to be asking is not whether black people or white people are more violent, it is whether black people or white people are more violent against white people; so, are the answers to these two questions different?
Interesting question.
Well we can first check out whether violent black & white criminals show any patterns in the kinds of victims they choose. According to the NCVS (2008) a little over half of the victims of black violent crime are white people.
Considering the multipliers I think the answer to these two questions is probably the same.
From what I gather (as I said in the video, I am NOT a social scientist) it’s based upon victims surveys; not racist cops inflating the stats, but victims reporting who committed the crime.
And given that the majority of crim is intrAracial, this is pretty definitive.
FringeElements breaks down the data rather well in “make the world flat.” He does make a couple of errors, and I’m sure you could criticize him for hours… or you could check out the FBI survey I mentioned.
Regardless of how this statistic is calculated, it seems like an incorrect one to be looking at, since it doesn’t address the absolute level of risk involved.
Epidemiology has some good definitions for dealing with the risk of a low probability event under various actions. I imagine a rationalist would find a statistic like “I would need to walk through a neighborhood of people not of my race 600 times for me to expect to be mugged 1 additional time” more likely to change his or her behavior.
Nitpick:
How was this statistic collected? I suspect what they actually found is that it’s between 7.5 and 8 times as likely that a black person will get caught having committed a violent crime as a white person.
Nah.
As I have said before:
Especially since the given numbers more or less match the findings of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). A factor of 7 is pretty much in the range for some crimes, though I don’t recall which ones off hand as this really is a boring subject. But even if the real numbers are like 6 or 5 or 4 times for rape or murder or aggravated assault (for blacks in general the numbers are somewhere there, though obviously men are more criminal than women) else is pretty much nitpicking since it dosen’t undermine Aurini’s point if we are talking about such huge numbers.
But I do recall something interesting, the arrest ratios basically match the crime victim surveys. Also recall that most black crime is black on black.
Doesn’t this just show that the judicial system is neither more nor less racist than the victims? (Honest question, and does not per se invalidate your conclusion.)
I think this is why he emphasised:
Consider that white on black violent crime is seen a big deal in American society, since it nearly instantly raises suspicions of racial motives and is disproportionately interesting to the media, wouldn’t the average black person tend to remember such encounters? A different possible explanation could be that white people recall or report less crime than black people in general but… really?
Edited to explicitly mark it as such.
Interesting. The right question for a white person concerned with their safety to be asking is not whether black people or white people are more violent, it is whether black people or white people are more violent against white people; so, are the answers to these two questions different?
Interesting question.
Well we can first check out whether violent black & white criminals show any patterns in the kinds of victims they choose. According to the NCVS (2008) a little over half of the victims of black violent crime are white people.
Considering the multipliers I think the answer to these two questions is probably the same.
From what I gather (as I said in the video, I am NOT a social scientist) it’s based upon victims surveys; not racist cops inflating the stats, but victims reporting who committed the crime.
And given that the majority of crim is intrAracial, this is pretty definitive.
FringeElements breaks down the data rather well in “make the world flat.” He does make a couple of errors, and I’m sure you could criticize him for hours… or you could check out the FBI survey I mentioned.
Regardless of how this statistic is calculated, it seems like an incorrect one to be looking at, since it doesn’t address the absolute level of risk involved.
Epidemiology has some good definitions for dealing with the risk of a low probability event under various actions. I imagine a rationalist would find a statistic like “I would need to walk through a neighborhood of people not of my race 600 times for me to expect to be mugged 1 additional time” more likely to change his or her behavior.
Is the second one supposed to be white person?
Yes. Thanks. Fixed.