I think “theory B” (DAE + EA) is likely true, but it also seems like he was independently considerably incompetent. The anecdotes about his mismanagement at Alameda and FTX (e.g. total lack of accounting, repeated expensive security breaches, taking objectively dumb risks, not sleeping, alienating the whole Alameda team by being so untrustworthy) weren’t clever utilitarian coinflip gambits that he got unlucky on, or selfish defections that he was trying to get away with. They were just dumb mistakes.
My guess is that a number of those mistakes largely came from a kind of overapplication of startup culture (move fast, break things, grow at all costs, minimize bureaucracy, ask forgiveness rather than permission) way past the point where it made sense. Until the end he was acting like he was running a ten-person company that had to 100x or die, even though he was actually running a medium-sized popular company with a perfectly workable business model. (Maybe he justified this to himself by thinking of it like he had to win even bigger to save the world with his money, or something, I don’t know.)
Since he was very inexperienced and terrible at taking advice, I don’t think there’s anything shocking about him being really bad at being in charge of a company moving a lot of money, regardless of how smart he was.
There were clear ways in which he was really bad at things, but also, clear ways that he was really good at some things. The FTX exchange is not something easy to build, and it’s much harder still to make it into a successful exchange like he did. Seems pretty clear he was really skilled at some things, despite his big weaknesses. But I don’t think it can be dismissed as just that he was bad at stuff. Also, him being bad at stuff doesn’t explain highly unethical actions that he appears to have taken.
I think SBF was bad at the same kinds of things that other high-functioning sociopaths tend to be bad at, e.g. problems stemming from
relative aversion to doing boring low-stimulation things (e.g. maintaining a spreadsheet)
conversely, a relative penchant for arousal-seeking / thrill-seeking (psychologically I think this stems from global under-arousal),
relative lack of seriousness about avoiding downside risks (psychologically I think this stems from lack of visceral worry about such things)
All the “mismanagement” examples that @cata mentioned seem to fit into those categories, more or less, I think.
For example, I recall hearing that high-functioning sociopaths in general tend to be terrible at managing their finances and often wind up in debt. I can’t immediately find where I heard that, but it is very true for both of the high-functioning sociopaths that I’ve known personally.
I think “theory B” (DAE + EA) is likely true, but it also seems like he was independently considerably incompetent. The anecdotes about his mismanagement at Alameda and FTX (e.g. total lack of accounting, repeated expensive security breaches, taking objectively dumb risks, not sleeping, alienating the whole Alameda team by being so untrustworthy) weren’t clever utilitarian coinflip gambits that he got unlucky on, or selfish defections that he was trying to get away with. They were just dumb mistakes.
My guess is that a number of those mistakes largely came from a kind of overapplication of startup culture (move fast, break things, grow at all costs, minimize bureaucracy, ask forgiveness rather than permission) way past the point where it made sense. Until the end he was acting like he was running a ten-person company that had to 100x or die, even though he was actually running a medium-sized popular company with a perfectly workable business model. (Maybe he justified this to himself by thinking of it like he had to win even bigger to save the world with his money, or something, I don’t know.)
Since he was very inexperienced and terrible at taking advice, I don’t think there’s anything shocking about him being really bad at being in charge of a company moving a lot of money, regardless of how smart he was.
There were clear ways in which he was really bad at things, but also, clear ways that he was really good at some things. The FTX exchange is not something easy to build, and it’s much harder still to make it into a successful exchange like he did. Seems pretty clear he was really skilled at some things, despite his big weaknesses. But I don’t think it can be dismissed as just that he was bad at stuff. Also, him being bad at stuff doesn’t explain highly unethical actions that he appears to have taken.
I think SBF was bad at the same kinds of things that other high-functioning sociopaths tend to be bad at, e.g. problems stemming from
relative aversion to doing boring low-stimulation things (e.g. maintaining a spreadsheet)
conversely, a relative penchant for arousal-seeking / thrill-seeking (psychologically I think this stems from global under-arousal),
relative lack of seriousness about avoiding downside risks (psychologically I think this stems from lack of visceral worry about such things)
All the “mismanagement” examples that @cata mentioned seem to fit into those categories, more or less, I think.
For example, I recall hearing that high-functioning sociopaths in general tend to be terrible at managing their finances and often wind up in debt. I can’t immediately find where I heard that, but it is very true for both of the high-functioning sociopaths that I’ve known personally.