Hmm, I think I disagree with the premise that we’ve gotten that much better at making guesstimates. My guess is that for most people, their ability to take systematic action in their environment in a way that has direct positive consequences has gotten a lot worse, but the ability of a small group of people to leverage systematic action for really large consequences has gotten a lot better.
My interpretation of Scott’s recent posts, in combination with some of the quotes from Vaniver’s “Steelmanning Divination” is something like the following:
A lot of people need to follow cultural rituals to succeed at their goals, in particular in domains that they don’t have time to think about a lot
Most of the rituals were created by individuals that did actually understand the real reasons for why certain things had to happen, but the complicated true explanations often couldn’t compete with the much simpler but wrong explanations that nevertheless allowed for the derivation of the correct instructions
On a societal level guesstimates have worked for a long time and are the source of a lot of our most valuable cultural institutions, and didn’t get particularly more effective recently
Most of the rituals were created by individuals that did actually understand the real reasons for why certain things had to happen
This is not part of my interpretation, so I was surprised to read this. Could you say more about why you think this? (Either why you think this being argued for in Vaniver’s / Scott’s posts or why you believe it is fine; I’m mostly interested in the arguments for this claim).
For example, Scott writes:
How did [culture] form? Not through some smart Inuit or Fuegian person reasoning it out; if that had been it, smart European explorers should have been able to reason it out too.
And quotes (either from Scholar’s Stage or The Secret of Our Success):
It’s possible that, with the introduction of rice, a few farmers began to use bird sightings as an indication of favorable garden sites. On-average, over a lifetime, these farmers would do better – be more successful – than farmers who relied on the Gambler’s Fallacy or on copying others’ immediate behavior.
Which, I don’t read as the few farmers knowing why they should use bird sightings.
Or this quote from Xunzi in Vaniver’s post:
One performs divination and only then decides on important affairs. But this is not to be regarded as bringing one what one seeks, but rather is done to give things proper form.
Which doesn’t sound like Xunzi understanding the specific importance of a given divination (I realise Xunzi is not the originator of the divinatory practices)
Nitpick: “We’ve gotten much better at making guesstimates” and “Guesstimates have become more effective” are quite different claims, and it’s not clear which one(s) you disagree with.
Hmm, I think I disagree with the premise that we’ve gotten that much better at making guesstimates. My guess is that for most people, their ability to take systematic action in their environment in a way that has direct positive consequences has gotten a lot worse, but the ability of a small group of people to leverage systematic action for really large consequences has gotten a lot better.
My interpretation of Scott’s recent posts, in combination with some of the quotes from Vaniver’s “Steelmanning Divination” is something like the following:
A lot of people need to follow cultural rituals to succeed at their goals, in particular in domains that they don’t have time to think about a lot
Most of the rituals were created by individuals that did actually understand the real reasons for why certain things had to happen, but the complicated true explanations often couldn’t compete with the much simpler but wrong explanations that nevertheless allowed for the derivation of the correct instructions
On a societal level guesstimates have worked for a long time and are the source of a lot of our most valuable cultural institutions, and didn’t get particularly more effective recently
This is not part of my interpretation, so I was surprised to read this. Could you say more about why you think this? (Either why you think this being argued for in Vaniver’s / Scott’s posts or why you believe it is fine; I’m mostly interested in the arguments for this claim).
For example, Scott writes:
And quotes (either from Scholar’s Stage or The Secret of Our Success):
Which, I don’t read as the few farmers knowing why they should use bird sightings.
Or this quote from Xunzi in Vaniver’s post:
Which doesn’t sound like Xunzi understanding the specific importance of a given divination (I realise Xunzi is not the originator of the divinatory practices)
Nitpick: “We’ve gotten much better at making guesstimates” and “Guesstimates have become more effective” are quite different claims, and it’s not clear which one(s) you disagree with.