This is a film about the 2008 Financial Market Crash, and tells the stories of...
...the three groups who noticed it would happen, believed it would happen, and successfully bet on their beliefs. It shows people going through the work of noticing an inconvenient hypothesis, being in an environment where people encouraged them to look away from it, empirically gathering data to test the hypothesis, and interacting with large institutions and bureaucracies that are corrupt and covering up this fact.
I think in most films the main characters of these films would be side-characters, contrarian nerds that the protagonist works with to get the job done, and then he takes the glory. In this story the contrarian nerds are the protagonists, and it’s very unpleasant work, but ultimately they have accurate beliefs about the world in a highly adversarial environment.
The Big Short is the filmic equivalent of my spirit-animal.
Rationality writings it is connected to:
I thought this would be hard, but actually it ties into so much.
Lonely Dissent: This film portrays the actual pain and suffering of believing what is true when so much of the world is pressuring you to not believe it, and the truth is itself extremely a lot worse than everyone else believes it to be. Seeing this hopefully helps break your trust in the world to be fine (cf. No Safe Defense, Not Even Science, and Beyond the Reach of God).
Faster Than Science: You need to rely on processes that are faster than waiting for the evidence to become incontrovertible such that everyone is forced to believe it. Yes, you can find out about catastrophes like the housing market crash or FTX by waiting for it all to collapse, but if you want to not face the terrible downfall then you have to notice before it has caused a catastrophe. (Related: Einstein’s Arrogance, Einstein’s Speed)
Meditations On Moloch by Scott Alexander. These men find themselves in a war with Moloch. They win their fight, but the war is lost. (Related: Immoral Mazes by Zvi Mowshowitz.)
If you enjoy The Big Short (2015), you may enjoy Margin Call (2011) too. It covers similar territory (what to do in a market crash), but I feel is more professional and dispassionate.
Datapoint: I didn’t enjoy margin call, because it didn’t try to explain the crisis, and the character of the CEO was deliberately dumbed down in a way that I don’t think real finance CEOs are.
There’s also a scene where one of the older traders makes a fermi estimate but doesn’t round any numbers to their order of magnitude. That gave me the sense that they’re earnestly trying to play autistic nerds but don’t quite know autistic nerd culture well enough.
The Big Short
Rationality Tie-in:
This is a film about the 2008 Financial Market Crash, and tells the stories of...
...the three groups who noticed it would happen, believed it would happen, and successfully bet on their beliefs. It shows people going through the work of noticing an inconvenient hypothesis, being in an environment where people encouraged them to look away from it, empirically gathering data to test the hypothesis, and interacting with large institutions and bureaucracies that are corrupt and covering up this fact.
I think in most films the main characters of these films would be side-characters, contrarian nerds that the protagonist works with to get the job done, and then he takes the glory. In this story the contrarian nerds are the protagonists, and it’s very unpleasant work, but ultimately they have accurate beliefs about the world in a highly adversarial environment.
The Big Short is the filmic equivalent of my spirit-animal.
Rationality writings it is connected to:
I thought this would be hard, but actually it ties into so much.
Lonely Dissent: This film portrays the actual pain and suffering of believing what is true when so much of the world is pressuring you to not believe it, and the truth is itself extremely a lot worse than everyone else believes it to be. Seeing this hopefully helps break your trust in the world to be fine (cf. No Safe Defense, Not Even Science, and Beyond the Reach of God).
Argument Screens Off Authority: Most of the powerful authorities say everything is fine. In this film some of the characters go and empirically test the hypothesis that they are wrong anyway. (Related: Hug the Query, The Proper Use of Humility).
Faster Than Science: You need to rely on processes that are faster than waiting for the evidence to become incontrovertible such that everyone is forced to believe it. Yes, you can find out about catastrophes like the housing market crash or FTX by waiting for it all to collapse, but if you want to not face the terrible downfall then you have to notice before it has caused a catastrophe. (Related: Einstein’s Arrogance, Einstein’s Speed)
Meditations On Moloch by Scott Alexander. These men find themselves in a war with Moloch. They win their fight, but the war is lost. (Related: Immoral Mazes by Zvi Mowshowitz.)
If you enjoy The Big Short (2015), you may enjoy Margin Call (2011) too. It covers similar territory (what to do in a market crash), but I feel is more professional and dispassionate.
Datapoint: I didn’t enjoy margin call, because it didn’t try to explain the crisis, and the character of the CEO was deliberately dumbed down in a way that I don’t think real finance CEOs are.
There’s also a scene where one of the older traders makes a fermi estimate but doesn’t round any numbers to their order of magnitude. That gave me the sense that they’re earnestly trying to play autistic nerds but don’t quite know autistic nerd culture well enough.
Absolutely, for years YouTube has offered me back to back clips of both, so I’ve watched parts of it many times (and the whole thing through once).
Cf. Moneyball.