I agree this is usually the case, but I think it’s not always true, and I don’t think it’s necessarily true here. E.g., people as early as Da Vinci guessed that we’d be able to fly long before we had planes (or even any flying apparatus which worked). Because birds can fly, and so we should be able to as well (at least, this was Da Vinci and the Wright brothers’ reasoning). That end point was not dependent on details (early flying designs had wings like a bird, a design which we did not keep :p), but was closer to a laws of physics claim (if birds can do it there isn’t anything fundamentally holding us back from doing it either).
Superintelligence holds a similar place in my mind: intelligence is physically possible, because we exhibit it, and it seems quite arbitrary to assume that we’ve maxed it out. But also, intelligence is obviously powerful, and reality is obviously more manipulable than we currently have the means to manipulate it. E.g., we know that we should be capable of developing advanced nanotech, since cells can, and that space travel/terraforming/etc. is possible.
These two things together—“we can likely create something much smarter than ourselves” and “reality can be radically transformed”—is enough to make me feel nervous. At some point I expect most of the universe to be transformed by agents; whether this is us, or aligned AIs, or misaligned AIs or what, I don’t know. But looking ahead and noticing that I don’t know how to select the “aligned AI” option from the set “things which will likely be able to radically transform matter” seems enough cause, in my mind, for exercising caution.
There’s a pretty big difference between statements like “superintelligence is physically possible”, “superintelligence could be dangerous” and statements like “doom is >80% likely in the 21st century unless we globally pause”. I agree with (and am not objecting to) the former claims, but I don’t agree with the latter claim.
I also agree that it’s sometimes true that endpoints are easier to predict than intermediate points. I haven’t seen Eliezer give a reasonable defense of this thesis as it applies to his doom model. If all he means here is that superintelligence is possible, it will one day be developed, and we should be cautious when developing it, then I don’t disagree. But I think he’s saying a lot more than that.
I agree this is usually the case, but I think it’s not always true, and I don’t think it’s necessarily true here. E.g., people as early as Da Vinci guessed that we’d be able to fly long before we had planes (or even any flying apparatus which worked). Because birds can fly, and so we should be able to as well (at least, this was Da Vinci and the Wright brothers’ reasoning). That end point was not dependent on details (early flying designs had wings like a bird, a design which we did not keep :p), but was closer to a laws of physics claim (if birds can do it there isn’t anything fundamentally holding us back from doing it either).
Superintelligence holds a similar place in my mind: intelligence is physically possible, because we exhibit it, and it seems quite arbitrary to assume that we’ve maxed it out. But also, intelligence is obviously powerful, and reality is obviously more manipulable than we currently have the means to manipulate it. E.g., we know that we should be capable of developing advanced nanotech, since cells can, and that space travel/terraforming/etc. is possible.
These two things together—“we can likely create something much smarter than ourselves” and “reality can be radically transformed”—is enough to make me feel nervous. At some point I expect most of the universe to be transformed by agents; whether this is us, or aligned AIs, or misaligned AIs or what, I don’t know. But looking ahead and noticing that I don’t know how to select the “aligned AI” option from the set “things which will likely be able to radically transform matter” seems enough cause, in my mind, for exercising caution.
There’s a pretty big difference between statements like “superintelligence is physically possible”, “superintelligence could be dangerous” and statements like “doom is >80% likely in the 21st century unless we globally pause”. I agree with (and am not objecting to) the former claims, but I don’t agree with the latter claim.
I also agree that it’s sometimes true that endpoints are easier to predict than intermediate points. I haven’t seen Eliezer give a reasonable defense of this thesis as it applies to his doom model. If all he means here is that superintelligence is possible, it will one day be developed, and we should be cautious when developing it, then I don’t disagree. But I think he’s saying a lot more than that.