Eliezer’s response to claims about unfalsifiability, namely that “predicting endpoints is easier than predicting intermediate points”, seems like a cop-out to me, since this would seem to reverse the usual pattern in forecasting and prediction, without good reason.
Note that MIRI has made some intermediate predictions. For example, I’m fairly certain Eliezer predicted that AlphaGo would go 5 for 5 against LSD, and it didn’t. I would respect his intellectual honesty more if he’d registered the alleged difficulty of intermediate predictions before making them unsuccessfully.
I think MIRI has something valuable to contribute to alignment discussions, but I’d respect them more if they did a “5 Whys” type analysis on their poor prediction track record, so as to improve the accuracy of predictions going forwards. I’m not seeing any evidence of that. It seems more like the standard pattern where a public figure invests their ego in some position, then tries to avoid losing face.
Note that MIRI has made some intermediate predictions. For example, I’m fairly certain Eliezer predicted that AlphaGo would go 5 for 5 against LSD, and it didn’t. I would respect his intellectual honesty more if he’d registered the alleged difficulty of intermediate predictions before making them unsuccessfully.
I think MIRI has something valuable to contribute to alignment discussions, but I’d respect them more if they did a “5 Whys” type analysis on their poor prediction track record, so as to improve the accuracy of predictions going forwards. I’m not seeing any evidence of that. It seems more like the standard pattern where a public figure invests their ego in some position, then tries to avoid losing face.