The bar is very low for me: If MIRI wants to demand the entire world shut down an entire industry, they must be an active research institution actively producing agreeable papers.
AI is not particularly unique even relative to most technologies. Our work on chemistry in the 1600′s-1900′s far outpaced our level of true understanding of chemistry, to the point where we only had a good model of an atom in the 20th century. And I don’t think anyone will deny the potential dangers of chemistry. Other technologies followed a similar trajectory.
We don’t have to agree that the range is 20-80% at all, never mind the specifics of it. Most polls demonstrate researchers find around 5-10% chance of total extinction on the high end. MIRI’s own survey finds a similar result! 80% would be insanely extreme. Your landscape of experts is, I’m guessing, your own personal follower list and not statistically viable.
The bar is very low for me: If MIRI wants to demand the entire world shut down an entire industry, they must be an active research institution actively producing agreeable papers.
AI is not particularly unique even relative to most technologies. Our work on chemistry in the 1600′s-1900′s far outpaced our level of true understanding of chemistry, to the point where we only had a good model of an atom in the 20th century. And I don’t think anyone will deny the potential dangers of chemistry. Other technologies followed a similar trajectory.
We don’t have to agree that the range is 20-80% at all, never mind the specifics of it. Most polls demonstrate researchers find around 5-10% chance of total extinction on the high end. MIRI’s own survey finds a similar result! 80% would be insanely extreme. Your landscape of experts is, I’m guessing, your own personal follower list and not statistically viable.