I know of only two people who anticipated something like what we are seeing far ahead of time; Hans Moravec and Jan Leike
I didn’t know about Jan’s AI timelines. Shane Legg also had some decently early predictions of AI around 2030(~2007 was the earliest I knew about)
shane legg had 2028 median back in 2008, see e.g. https://e-discoveryteam.com/2023/11/17/shane-leggs-vision-agi-is-likely-by-2028-as-soon-as-we-overcome-ais-senior-moments/
That’s probably the one I was thinking of.
Oh no uh-oh I think I might have confused Shane Legg with Jan Leike
I didn’t know about Jan’s AI timelines. Shane Legg also had some decently early predictions of AI around 2030(~2007 was the earliest I knew about)
shane legg had 2028 median back in 2008, see e.g. https://e-discoveryteam.com/2023/11/17/shane-leggs-vision-agi-is-likely-by-2028-as-soon-as-we-overcome-ais-senior-moments/
That’s probably the one I was thinking of.
Oh no uh-oh I think I might have confused Shane Legg with Jan Leike