Probably the best example of how do I win. In this match, the gut reaction would be to use the direct damage spell in hand to clear away one of the creatures, and hope for either a big creature draw, or some other game changing spell. Instead, knowing the ONLY way he could win is if the card on top of his deck is direct damage, he spent the direct damage spell in hand directly at his opponent, and then just flipped over the top card- if you only have one path to victory, you have to ignore all other paths, no matter how tempting, or how much it feels like the wrong play.
...without losing sight of the fact that having allowed myself to get into a position where my only path to victory requires a low-probability event that I don’t control was already a huge mistake that I should confidently expect to result in my failure.
This is a very fine line to walk, especially in magic. Finding the places you could have made better decisions, while understanding what decisions you could not have made better with the information you had at the time, is not an easy task- although at my skill level, it is generally easier to assume I made a poor decision and find it.
I don’t know much about magic, but yes, when games have a significant random element it’s often difficult to tell the difference between an optimal strategy that just happened to lose this time, and a suboptimal strategy.
Probably the best example of how do I win. In this match, the gut reaction would be to use the direct damage spell in hand to clear away one of the creatures, and hope for either a big creature draw, or some other game changing spell. Instead, knowing the ONLY way he could win is if the card on top of his deck is direct damage, he spent the direct damage spell in hand directly at his opponent, and then just flipped over the top card- if you only have one path to victory, you have to ignore all other paths, no matter how tempting, or how much it feels like the wrong play.
...without losing sight of the fact that having allowed myself to get into a position where my only path to victory requires a low-probability event that I don’t control was already a huge mistake that I should confidently expect to result in my failure.
This is a very fine line to walk, especially in magic. Finding the places you could have made better decisions, while understanding what decisions you could not have made better with the information you had at the time, is not an easy task- although at my skill level, it is generally easier to assume I made a poor decision and find it.
I don’t know much about magic, but yes, when games have a significant random element it’s often difficult to tell the difference between an optimal strategy that just happened to lose this time, and a suboptimal strategy.