Yeah, that’s exactly how I look at it: The benchmark is the index, not cash. So I would see it as a 30 percent gain. But I figure that either I need to recalibrate my odds, or I need to make a bet that maximises long-run growth based on my credences. I don’t think holding cash is optimal.
Well aware of the risks, but I’d kick myself if I were right and didn’t act. I’m buying puts so the limit is the initial investment. Can’t go bankrupt.
Yeah, that’s exactly how I look at it: The benchmark is the index, not cash. So I would see it as a 30 percent gain. But I figure that either I need to recalibrate my odds, or I need to make a bet that maximises long-run growth based on my credences. I don’t think holding cash is optimal.
Well aware of the risks, but I’d kick myself if I were right and didn’t act. I’m buying puts so the limit is the initial investment. Can’t go bankrupt.
Thanks, mate.
“Yeah, that’s exactly how I look at it: The benchmark is the index, not cash. So I would see it as a 30 percent gain.”
Why? If you are right you have 100% compared to 70% someone has who’s position has lost 30%. Isn’t that 42.9% more?
In my defence, we didn’t do arithmetic in my mathematics degree.