It is 2022-10-16, roughly one year after the post was made. The S&P 500 has not dropped below 3029 at any point. It is currently at its lowest value since the post was made at 3583.
Yep, down from 4327 at the time of posting, but not down enough for my prediction to be correct.
As far as I can tell, the main issue with my prediction was the Fed moving soooooo slllllooooow to increase interest rates, past the point of utter delusion on their part. Not only does this mean delaying the market crash, it means the dollars in which they are valued were worth less (meaning higher stock prices than they would’ve been with less inflation).
If I’m charitable to myself, I’d say right in direction, wrong in magnitude. And potentially only wrong in time frame, if it does drop below 3029 over the next few years.
But there’s other things I missed, like Russia invading Ukraine. And even if I knew that was likely, I wouldn’t have predicted the West’s massive financial sanction response. But though much of the inflation blame got put onto the war, inflation was high before the invasion. I also should have looked into the past performance of the Fed to see how late to the party they’ve previously been.
I’ve been doing some backtests to get more accurate investment decisions. Will do an update when I’m happy with my methodology.
Did you make money from your positions? Being wrong about timing and magnitude but right in direction is, most of the time in investment, the same as just being plain wrong. There are plenty of known bubbles, but people lose money with puts all the time by getting the timing wrong.
It is 2022-10-16, roughly one year after the post was made. The S&P 500 has not dropped below 3029 at any point. It is currently at its lowest value since the post was made at 3583.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview
Yep, down from 4327 at the time of posting, but not down enough for my prediction to be correct.
As far as I can tell, the main issue with my prediction was the Fed moving soooooo slllllooooow to increase interest rates, past the point of utter delusion on their part. Not only does this mean delaying the market crash, it means the dollars in which they are valued were worth less (meaning higher stock prices than they would’ve been with less inflation).
If I’m charitable to myself, I’d say right in direction, wrong in magnitude. And potentially only wrong in time frame, if it does drop below 3029 over the next few years.
But there’s other things I missed, like Russia invading Ukraine. And even if I knew that was likely, I wouldn’t have predicted the West’s massive financial sanction response. But though much of the inflation blame got put onto the war, inflation was high before the invasion. I also should have looked into the past performance of the Fed to see how late to the party they’ve previously been.
I’ve been doing some backtests to get more accurate investment decisions. Will do an update when I’m happy with my methodology.
Did you make money from your positions? Being wrong about timing and magnitude but right in direction is, most of the time in investment, the same as just being plain wrong. There are plenty of known bubbles, but people lose money with puts all the time by getting the timing wrong.
I am up, compared to the market, yes.
Out of curiosity, what were your exact positions and returns?