My $150K against your $1K if you’re still up for it at 150:1. Paypal to yudkowsky@gmail.com with “UFO bet” in subject or text, please include counterparty payment info if it’s not “email the address which sent me that payment”.
Key qualifier: This applies only to UFOs spotted before July 19th, 2023, rather than applying to eg future UFOs generated by secret AI projects which were not putatively flying around and spotted before July 19th, 2023.
ADDED: $150K is as much as I care to stake at my current wealth level, to rise to this bettors’ challenge and make this point; not taking on further bets except at substantially less extreme odds.
Though I disagree with @RatsWrongAboutUAP (see this tweet) and took the other side of the bet, I say a word of praise for RatsWrong about following exactly the proper procedure to make the point they wanted to make, and communicating that they really actually think we’re wrong here. Object-level disagreement, meta-level high-five.
How does all of the recent official activity fit into your worldview here? Do you have your own speculations/explanations for why, e.g., Chuck Schumer would propose such specifically-worded legislation on this topic? Does that stuff just not factor into your worldview at all (or perhaps is weighted next to nothing against your own tweeted-about intuitions)?
Meta-level high-five for engaging with a stigmatised topic with extensive reasoning, onto object-level disagreement: What better strategies did you have in mind re. achieving goals like positioning themselves at the top of our status hierarchy? NHI would likely be aware of cognitive biases we are not, as well as those we are (e.g. the biases that cause humans to double down when prophecies fail in cults, and generally act weirdly around incredibly slim evidence).
The highest-status authority, in the eyes of the vast majority of humans, is a deity or deities, and these highly influential, species-shaping status hierarchies are largely based on a few flimsy apparitions. (This is somewhat suspicious, if your priors for alien visitation are relatively high; mine are relatively high due to molecular panspermia.) If you had to isolate seeds for future dominant religions, UFO and UFO-adjacent cults (including Scientology and the New Age) seem like plausible candidates; UFOs are frequently cited as the primary example of an emerging myth in the modern world.
If we assume these results are the desired result, we could hypothesise NHI is using its monopoly on miracle generation to craft human-tailored memetically viral belief systems, from ancient gods to today’s saucers. Given that ancient gods DO occupy the top of our status hierarchy, beyond our corporate, cultural and political leaders, I’m not sure we can be so confident that creating disreputable UFO reports is a poor strategy; less reputable reports dominated the world in a few centuries.
Eliezer, I’m offering you double the odds at 75:1, and would put up to $50k against your corresponding amount. If the UFO phenomenon is real, p(doom) may be much lower than you think, and in this view you’d probably be happy to pay it out.
Unless, of course, those UAPs turn up, and don’t have biological organisms in them, in which case we’d have the possibility that another civilization developed AI and it went poorly.
...or it is biological and we end up in a situation like 3 body problem/killing-star where the saucer fiends decide to gank us because humans are kinda violent and too dangerous to keep around.
All those super-intelligence as danger arguments also apply to biological super intelligences too.
But most likely: There are no damn UFOs and the laws of physics and their big ugly light speed prohibition still holds.
Hey Eliezer, someone sent me your tweet and the link to this specific comment without the wider context and I thought this was a open invitation to put a wager, and I sent out $1000 to your paypal. Are you willing to accept an additional 1000$ bet under the same terms? (apologies for the hassle, completely missed the wider context)
I am not - $150K is as much as I care to stake at my present weath levels—and while I refunded your payment, I was charged a $44.90 fee on the original transmission which was not then refunded to me.
Eliezer, I agree with you. I’m curious to know. Have you considered the implications of the presense of an NHI Artifical Intelligence on earth?
I have recently been thinking about this quite a bit. I find it interesting, signifigantly increased interest in AI, due to the release of Chat GPT, almost directly preceeded David Grusch’s whisteblower report. I am becoming more of the opinion, that our advancements in AI, may be related to why disclosure feels so imminent.
I made a very long, detail post, with a TLDR on Reddit. I would be honored to have your opinion on the subject.
My $150K against your $1K if you’re still up for it at 150:1. Paypal to yudkowsky@gmail.com with “UFO bet” in subject or text, please include counterparty payment info if it’s not “email the address which sent me that payment”.
Key qualifier: This applies only to UFOs spotted before July 19th, 2023, rather than applying to eg future UFOs generated by secret AI projects which were not putatively flying around and spotted before July 19th, 2023.
ADDED: $150K is as much as I care to stake at my current wealth level, to rise to this bettors’ challenge and make this point; not taking on further bets except at substantially less extreme odds.
Though I disagree with @RatsWrongAboutUAP (see this tweet) and took the other side of the bet, I say a word of praise for RatsWrong about following exactly the proper procedure to make the point they wanted to make, and communicating that they really actually think we’re wrong here. Object-level disagreement, meta-level high-five.
Glad to have made this bet with you!
How does all of the recent official activity fit into your worldview here? Do you have your own speculations/explanations for why, e.g., Chuck Schumer would propose such specifically-worded legislation on this topic? Does that stuff just not factor into your worldview at all (or perhaps is weighted next to nothing against your own tweeted-about intuitions)?
Meta-level high-five for engaging with a stigmatised topic with extensive reasoning, onto object-level disagreement: What better strategies did you have in mind re. achieving goals like positioning themselves at the top of our status hierarchy? NHI would likely be aware of cognitive biases we are not, as well as those we are (e.g. the biases that cause humans to double down when prophecies fail in cults, and generally act weirdly around incredibly slim evidence).
The highest-status authority, in the eyes of the vast majority of humans, is a deity or deities, and these highly influential, species-shaping status hierarchies are largely based on a few flimsy apparitions. (This is somewhat suspicious, if your priors for alien visitation are relatively high; mine are relatively high due to molecular panspermia.) If you had to isolate seeds for future dominant religions, UFO and UFO-adjacent cults (including Scientology and the New Age) seem like plausible candidates; UFOs are frequently cited as the primary example of an emerging myth in the modern world.
If we assume these results are the desired result, we could hypothesise NHI is using its monopoly on miracle generation to craft human-tailored memetically viral belief systems, from ancient gods to today’s saucers. Given that ancient gods DO occupy the top of our status hierarchy, beyond our corporate, cultural and political leaders, I’m not sure we can be so confident that creating disreputable UFO reports is a poor strategy; less reputable reports dominated the world in a few centuries.
Received.
Eliezer, I’m offering you double the odds at 75:1, and would put up to $50k against your corresponding amount. If the UFO phenomenon is real, p(doom) may be much lower than you think, and in this view you’d probably be happy to pay it out.
Unless, of course, those UAPs turn up, and don’t have biological organisms in them, in which case we’d have the possibility that another civilization developed AI and it went poorly.
...or it is biological and we end up in a situation like 3 body problem/killing-star where the saucer fiends decide to gank us because humans are kinda violent and too dangerous to keep around.
All those super-intelligence as danger arguments also apply to biological super intelligences too.
But most likely: There are no damn UFOs and the laws of physics and their big ugly light speed prohibition still holds.
For all of the people who like these odds, I’ve created a secondary prediction market about this bet, so you don’t have to try to send Eliezer money.
Hey Eliezer, someone sent me your tweet and the link to this specific comment without the wider context and I thought this was a open invitation to put a wager, and I sent out $1000 to your paypal. Are you willing to accept an additional 1000$ bet under the same terms? (apologies for the hassle, completely missed the wider context)
I am not - $150K is as much as I care to stake at my present weath levels—and while I refunded your payment, I was charged a $44.90 fee on the original transmission which was not then refunded to me.
Oh, that’s suboptimal, sending 100$ to cover the fee charge (the extra in case they take another fee for some reason).
Again, apologies for the inconvenience. (wire sent)
Received $95.51. :)
(I like your eagerness to put your money where your mouth is and appreciate you covering the costs when your offer was not accepted.)
Eliezer, I agree with you. I’m curious to know. Have you considered the implications of the presense of an NHI Artifical Intelligence on earth?
I have recently been thinking about this quite a bit. I find it interesting, signifigantly increased interest in AI, due to the release of Chat GPT, almost directly preceeded David Grusch’s whisteblower report. I am becoming more of the opinion, that our advancements in AI, may be related to why disclosure feels so imminent.
I made a very long, detail post, with a TLDR on Reddit. I would be honored to have your opinion on the subject.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/155te7s/the_most_urgent_question_we_need_answered_do_uaps/?sort=new
Willing to bet against Eliezer 100:1. Up to $50k available for grabs. If others are also interested in the bet, please contact me.