This. The phrasing “if you are on Vulcan, then you are on the mountain” *sounds* like it should be orthogonal to, and therefore gives no new information on and cannot affect the probability of, your being on Vulcan.
This is quite false, as can be shown easily by the statement “if you are on Vulcan, then false”. But it is a line of reasoning I can see being tempting.
This. The phrasing “if you are on Vulcan, then you are on the mountain” *sounds* like it should be orthogonal to, and therefore gives no new information on and cannot affect the probability of, your being on Vulcan.
This is quite false, as can be shown easily by the statement “if you are on Vulcan, then false”. But it is a line of reasoning I can see being tempting.