I guess I was thinking that making it precise would be either something like
Only do an action if the probability of success of given the action has been done is 95% or greater and don’t do an action if the probability of success doing nothing is 95%.
or,
Make the Utility be 1 if at a defined point the probability of success is 95% or greater and 0 otherwise and just maximise Expected Utility.
I’m not sure how the first proposal is going to come up against either of the problems you mention. Though it does seem to need a definition of inaction and presumably it could fall prey to the 5 and 10 problem or similar.
I guess there might be a general problem with this sort approach in that it won’t try to do low impact actions that move from a 50% probability to a 55% probability.
I guess I was thinking that making it precise would be either something like
Only do an action if the probability of success of given the action has been done is 95% or greater and don’t do an action if the probability of success doing nothing is 95%.
or,
Make the Utility be 1 if at a defined point the probability of success is 95% or greater and 0 otherwise and just maximise Expected Utility.
I’m not sure how the first proposal is going to come up against either of the problems you mention. Though it does seem to need a definition of inaction and presumably it could fall prey to the 5 and 10 problem or similar.
I guess there might be a general problem with this sort approach in that it won’t try to do low impact actions that move from a 50% probability to a 55% probability.