As a bit of metacommentary, that your main thesis (the title) is presented and viewed as a significant insight in this year (2023), and is contested significantly in the comments, is to me a sign of how insular LW is.
Democratic backsliding isn’t exactly the same thing but it rhymes, and the democratic backsliding of the US has been discussed outside of LW for over half a decade at this point.
I’m not saying LW discourse is better than those articles; I haven’t read them. I’m saying that it’s better than Twitter discourse, which is a low bar.
I’m not sure why you keep bringing up social media, I haven’t so it’s quite irrelevant to my point.
Your specific point was that LW is better than predicting
96 of the last one civil wars and two depressions
I’m curious if you just think that, or if you actually have evidence demonstrating that LW as a community has a quantifiably better track record than social media. That’s completely beside my point though, since I was never talking about social media.
As a bit of metacommentary, that your main thesis (the title) is presented and viewed as a significant insight in this year (2023), and is contested significantly in the comments, is to me a sign of how insular LW is.
Democratic backsliding isn’t exactly the same thing but it rhymes, and the democratic backsliding of the US has been discussed outside of LW for over half a decade at this point.
One problem is that social media predicts 96 of the last one civil wars and two depressions
I’m mostly talking about academic discourse. Also, what a weird hollier than thou attitude; are you implying LW is better? In what way?
Yes.
How?
Edit:
Also, are you asking me for sources that people have been worried about democratic backsliding for over 5 years? I mean, sure, but I’m genuinely a little surprised that this isn’t common knowledge. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C44&q=democratic+backsliding+united+states&btnG=&oq=democratic+ba
A few specific examples of both academic and non-academic articles:
https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/jnlodmcy28&div=82&g_sent=1&casa_token=&collection=journals
https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora96&div=58&g_sent=1&casa_token=&collection=journals
https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/uclalr65&div=45&g_sent=1&casa_token=&collection=journals
How has the discourse on LW about democratic backsliding been better than these ~5 year old articles?
I’m not saying LW discourse is better than those articles; I haven’t read them. I’m saying that it’s better than Twitter discourse, which is a low bar.
I’m not sure why you keep bringing up social media, I haven’t so it’s quite irrelevant to my point.
Your specific point was that LW is better than predicting
I’m curious if you just think that, or if you actually have evidence demonstrating that LW as a community has a quantifiably better track record than social media. That’s completely beside my point though, since I was never talking about social media.