Tom, I think we are actually agreeing. I’m arguing that if you already know the situation is complicated you cannot just appeal to Occam’s Razor, you need some reason specific to the situation about why the simple hypothesis should win.
You are proposing a reason, specific to economics, about why the complications might be washed away, making it reasonable to prefer the simpler hypothesis. My claim is that those extra reasons are essential. Occam’s Razor, on its own, is useless in situations known to be complicated.
Tom, I think we are actually agreeing. I’m arguing that if you already know the situation is complicated you cannot just appeal to Occam’s Razor, you need some reason specific to the situation about why the simple hypothesis should win.
You are proposing a reason, specific to economics, about why the complications might be washed away, making it reasonable to prefer the simpler hypothesis. My claim is that those extra reasons are essential. Occam’s Razor, on its own, is useless in situations known to be complicated.