But how can I apply this sort of logic to the problems I’ve described above? It still seems to me like I need in theory to sum over all of the probabilities in some set A that contains all these improbable events but I just don’t understand how to even properly define A, as its boundaries seem fuzzy and various thing “kinda fit” or “doesn’t quite fit, but maybe?” instead of plain true and false.
But how can I apply this sort of logic to the problems I’ve described above? It still seems to me like I need in theory to sum over all of the probabilities in some set A that contains all these improbable events but I just don’t understand how to even properly define A, as its boundaries seem fuzzy and various thing “kinda fit” or “doesn’t quite fit, but maybe?” instead of plain true and false.